Leopold Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

$225,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily · 551 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Explore affordable new construction homes in New Caney, TX at The Landing. Benefit from a low tax rate and a cozy small-town ambiance. Perfect for growing families, a variety of floorplans offer up to 4 beds and 3 baths. Immerse yourself in the peaceful rural backdrop located just west of I-69 with everyday essentials close to home. The Landing offers new-construction homes designed to meet your family's needs with modern amenities and a low tax rate. Nestled in a serene setting, these homes provide a laid-back lifestyle without compromising on convenience or quality. Tour The Landing today! Offered By: K. Hovnanian of Houston II, L. L. C. The Leopold offers: Spacious, open-concept one-story floorplan. Kitchen with beautifully designed cabinets and access to covered patio. Cozy great room with views of dining room, ideal for entertaining. Convenient home office, perfect for working from home. Attached two-car garage to house vehicles. Covered patio off the kitchen perfect to enjoy the outdoors.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Modern amenities
• Low tax rate

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOMES
• ACCESS TO NEW CANEY ISD
• LOW TAX RATE
• MODERN AMENITIES
• CONVENIENT HOME OFFICE
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $225,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,312.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-332 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 551 days — a 12% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,080 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 551 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.36%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,312
• List price: $225,990
• Delta: -14.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22742 Kaelynn St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,610 (0%)	0mo	$269,818	$168	81
18624 Presswood Way Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (-3%)	1mo	$264,390	$170	79
18452 Landing Meadows Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+5%)	2mo	$259,390	$154	75
18917 Lucas Michael Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-7%)	1mo	$261,290	$174	73
22819 Skip St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-7%)	1mo	$259,790	$173	72
18688 Shauna Danielle Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-7%)	1mo	$265,790	$177	72
18669 Shauna Danielle Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-12%)	1mo	$249,990	$177	66
22647 Ellis Way Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-11%)	0mo	$246,940	$173	64
18696 Shauna Danielle Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,826 (+13%)	1mo	$287,040	$157	62
22639 Ellis Way Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-13%)	1mo	$261,540	$186	61
18921 Lucas Michael Way	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,826 (+13%)	1mo	$272,540	$149	60
22815 Skip St	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,826 (+13%)	1mo	$271,790	$149	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-69,292
• Equity at exit: $39,559

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-107,586
• Equity at exit: $22,939

Cash invested: $74,287 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.2 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $268,740 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,391
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$332 /mo · $3,980/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,321

Max offer price $217,288

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-149	-5% $-240	+0% $-332	+5% $-424	+10% $-515
Rent	-10% $-482	-5% $-407	+0% $-332	+5% $-257	+10% $-182
Rate	-1.0pp $-198	-0.5pp $-264	base $-332	+0.5pp $-401	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,328
• Closing costs: $7,959
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21504 Mexican John Rd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	93d	1	0.63mi
21950 Caney Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,850	$1.57	34d	1	0.96mi
18036 Trepito Ave New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,950	$1.11	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $225,990 Active 551 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $225,990 Active 549 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $225,990 Active 548 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $225,990 Active 547 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $225,990 Active 546 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $225,990 Active 543 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $225,990 Active 541 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $225,990 Active 540 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $225,990 Active 538 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $225,990 Active 536 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $225,990 Active 535 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $225,990 Active 534 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $225,990 Active 533 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $225,990 Active 532 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $225,990 Active 530 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $225,990 Active 529 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $225,990 Active 528 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $225,990 Active 527 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $225,990 Active 526 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $225,990 Active 525 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $225,990 Active 524 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $225,990 Active 523 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $250,990 Active 522 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $250,990 Active 521 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $225,990 Active 519 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $225,990 Active 518 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $225,990 Active 517 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $225,990 Active 516 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $225,990 Active 515 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $225,990 Active 514 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $245,990 Active 513 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $245,990 Active 512 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $245,990 Active 511 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $245,990 Active 510 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $245,990 Active 509 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $245,990 Active 508 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $245,990 Active 506 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $245,990 Active 504 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $245,990 Active 503 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $245,990 Active 500 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $245,990 Active 499 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $245,990 Active 498 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $245,990 Active 497 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $245,990 Active 495 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $244,990 Active 491 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,990 Active 490 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,990 Active 489 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 486 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 485 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 484 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,862
• − Property taxes: −$3,980
• − Insurance: −$1,327
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$7,718
• Taxable loss: −$8,726
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,094
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,050–$24,150 screening

This single-family home in Woodbranch, TX, offers a good condition with a well-maintained exterior and a spacious floor plan. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Trim the bushes — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

---

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $257,490 Zillow
• 2025-02-04 Listed $249,990 Zillow