225 Arrowhead Dr · Goreville, IL 62939

$75,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,403 sqft · SingleFamily · 146 Days on market

Built 1991 $53/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*Price Drop* Endless opportunities await! Looking for a starter home? This property is the perfect place to begin your home ownership journey. Needing a weekend getaway? The perfect escape awaits! Wanting to dip your toes into the Air BnB world or add to your business? This is a prime short term rental opportunity. No matter your intensions, this property has it all, including 2 extra lots. Located at the Lake of Egypt, you are close to the water, without those waterfront taxes. It's every outdoor lover's dream. Association fees include access to the boat ramp and beach area. 4 beds, 1 1/2 bath with laundry and additional utility and a new roof this year. Come see for yourself and let your imagination run on what could be!

Key facts

• Extra lots
• Beach area
• Access to boat ramp

Tags

• SHORT TERM RENTAL OPPORTUNITY
• EXTRA LOTS
• ACCESS TO BOAT RAMP
• BEACH AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 1.3% in Goreville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#298 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Goreville CUD 1 (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #337 of 620 in IL (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.57%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,731
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -58.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 Lakeshore Dr S	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,515 (+8%)	8mo	$520,000	$343	61
2030 S Lakeshore Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-9%)	21mo	$115,000	$90	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $20,806
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $60,572
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62939

• Home prices YoY: -17.3%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $852/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $627

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $75,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $85,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 127 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 126 DOM
18. 2026-04-01
    price $85,000 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    *Price Drop* Endless opportunities await! Looking for a starter home? This property is the perfect place to begin your home ownership journey. Needing a weekend getaway? The perfect escape awaits! Wanting to dip your toes into the Air BnB world or add to your business? This is a prime short term rental opportunity. No matter your intensions, this property has it all, including 2 extra lots. Located at the Lake of Egypt, you are close to the water, without those waterfront taxes. It's every outdoor lover's dream. Association fees include access to the boat ramp and beach area. 4 beds, 1 1/2 bath with laundry and additional utility and a new roof this year. Come see for yourself and let your imagination run on what could be!

19. 2026-03-17
    historical
20. 2026-01-28
    historical
21. 2026-01-20
    status Active
22. 2026-01-14
    historical
23. 2026-01-13
    historical
24. 2026-01-08
    status Active
25. 2026-01-06
    historical
26. 2026-01-05
    historical
27. 2025-09-12
    price
28. 2025-04-14
    listed $94,900 Active 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    *Price Drop* Endless opportunities await! Looking for a starter home? This property is the perfect place to begin your home ownership journey. Needing a weekend getaway? The perfect escape awaits! Wanting to dip your toes into the Air BnB world or add to your business? This is a prime short term rental opportunity. No matter your intensions, this property has it all, including 2 extra lots. Located at the Lake of Egypt, you are close to the water, without those waterfront taxes. It's every outdoor lover's dream. Association fees include access to the boat ramp and beach area. 4 beds, 1 1/2 bath with laundry and additional utility and a new roof this year. Come see for yourself and let your imagination run on what could be!

29. 2025-04-14
    listed Active

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    *Price Drop* Endless opportunities await! Looking for a starter home? This property is the perfect place to begin your home ownership journey. Needing a weekend getaway? The perfect escape awaits! Wanting to dip your toes into the Air BnB world or add to your business? This is a prime short term rental opportunity. No matter your intensions, this property has it all, including 2 extra lots. Located at the Lake of Egypt, you are close to the water, without those waterfront taxes. It's every outdoor lover's dream. Association fees include access to the boat ramp and beach area. 4 beds, 1 1/2 bath with laundry and additional utility and a new roof this year. Come see for yourself and let your imagination run on what could be!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$425/yr (+$35/mo · 49.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$852
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,315
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,276
• After-tax cash flow: $4,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goreville CUD 1
• NCES district ID: 1700014
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,298
• Composite: 21.52/100
• National rank: #8317
• State rank: #337 of 620 in IL

Livability — Goreville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #5712

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,072
• Population (ZIP): 3,072

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,355 people
• By 2030: 13,579 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 13,849 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 13,880 · +3.9%
• By 2075: 13,759 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 11,536 · -13.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Danish 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.3) · D 20.3% · R 78.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.6pp · 2024: -58.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.3 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+42.1 2008: R+34.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.34%
• Current HPI: 159.748
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $85,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Coming Soon — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Listed $94,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $852 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.