431 S 18th Ave · Hopewell, VA 23860

$185,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,282 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1950 8,999 sqft lot $144/sqft · 22% below area Est $236k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath ranch-style home offering over-sized living space and endless potential! Situated on a quiet street in Hopewell, this property features a renovated kitchen with granite countertops, center island, abundant cabinetry, and laminate plank flooring throughout much of the home. The flexible floor plan provides room for larger households, home office space, hobbies, or multi-generational living. Large attached garage with power offers excellent storage, workshop, or project space possibilities. Property is being sold strictly AS-IS and will require repairs and updates, making it an excellent opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to build equity. Con

Key facts

• Flexible floor plan
• Renovated kitchen
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• LAMINATE PLANK FLOORING
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage accommodates approximately 1.5 cars; Two parking spaces; Garage faces rear and also side; Unfinished garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Built with block construction and asbestos materials; Asphalt shingle roof; Above-grade finished area of 1,282
• Exterior features: Zoned B3

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; One full bathroom includes tub & shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Total of 9 rooms; Resale condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.2% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#224 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hopewell City Public School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #129 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42 units permitted in Hopewell city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hopewell County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.83%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,063
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -21.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
437 S 20th Ave	0.12mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (+11%)	13mo	$300,000	$211	58
2203 Grant St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+5%)	5mo	$273,000	$203	58
332 S 12th Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,374 (+7%)	20mo	$220,000	$160	52
2701 Portsmouth St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,252 (-2%)	19mo	$250,000	$200	48
2411 W City Point Rd	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+13%)	4mo	$222,000	$154	39
2808 Maple St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-14%)	7mo	$230,000	$209	31
2121 Dolin St	0.66mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-6%)	23mo	$184,900	$154	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,627
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $42,596
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23860

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,079/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,650

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 S 9th Ave Hopewell, VA	4.0	1.0	1056	$1,599	$1.51	3d	1	0.40mi
1004 Sunnyside Ave Hopewell, VA	4.0	2.0	875	$1,737	$1.99	4d	1	0.74mi
508 N 7th Ave Hopewell, VA	4.0	1.0	1183	$1,599	$1.35	1d	1	0.97mi
525 E Cawson St Hopewell, VA	4.0	2.0	1411	$1,791	$1.27	10d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    listed $185,000 Active 847-char remark
14. 2025-02-06
    historical
15. 2024-12-20
    listed $240,000 Active
16. 2024-06-04
    soldstatus $270,000
17. 2024-04-25
    historical
18. 2024-03-15
    listed $269,900 Active
19. 2024-03-15
    historical
20. 2024-02-15
    price $269,900
21. 2023-12-15
    status Active
22. 1997-11-19
    soldstatus $53,800
23. 1993-09-23
    soldstatus $23,000
24. 1992-05-26
    soldstatus $51,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,079 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,079 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 42% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,079
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$373
• After-tax cash flow: $1,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopewell City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101980
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -54.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $38,234
• Composite: 29.95/100
• National rank: #6377
• State rank: #129 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hopewell

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #7437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hopewell, VA
• County: Hopewell City · 31,404 people
• City population: 31,404
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 31,404
• Household income: $62,141
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1055.0

Population outlook (Hopewell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,776 people
• By 2030: 21,457 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 20,882 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 20,239 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 18,905 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -22.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 42% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopewell

• 2024 margin: D (+13.8) · D 56.4% · R 42.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.8pp toward D · 2008: 11.9pp · 2024: 13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.8 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+9.3 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+11.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.28%
• Current HPI: 302.6343
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.86%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+259.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $185,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-02-06 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listed $240,000 CVRMLS
• 2024-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-25 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listed $269,900 CVRMLS
• 2024-02-15 Price Changed $269,900 CVRMLS
• 2023-12-15 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 1997-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $53,800 Public Records
• 1993-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 1992-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,079 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.