2527 Nelson Farm Rd · Greensboro, NC 27406

$195,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,718 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 248 Days on market

Built 1890 10 ac lot Est $301k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a 1718 square foot, vacant land. This home is located at 2527 Nelson Farm Rd, Greensboro, NC 27406.

Key facts

• 10.42 acre lot
• Built 1890
• Listed 248 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,718
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 10.42 acres

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.8% in Greensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#12 in NC, #1,335 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Guilford County Schools (urban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #99 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,843 units permitted in Guilford County in 2024 (2,397 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guilford County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.98%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,650
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2503 Nelson Farm Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-3%)	14mo	$185,000	$111	65
4082 Clovelly Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-5%)	6mo	$299,000	$183	52
2115 Gramercy Park Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	1,790 (+4%)	7mo	$231,000	$129	50
3603 Castleton Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,906 (+11%)	5mo	$334,000	$175	39
3606 Chippendale Trl	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,567 (-9%)	18mo	$300,000	$191	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,298
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $20,233
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27406

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $672/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,468

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3905 Vershire Ave Greensboro, NC	4.0	3.0	2060	$2,125	$1.03	23d	1	0.54mi
3902 Edgewood Terrace Dr Greensboro, NC	3.0	2.5	2080	$2,035	$0.98	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $195,000 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 247 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 246 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 245 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 244 DOM
6. 2025-09-28
   listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,599 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$927/yr (+$77/mo · 137.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$672
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $1,767
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$424
• After-tax cash flow: $4,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701920
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,315
• Composite: 35.78/100
• National rank: #4842
• State rank: #99 of 178 in NC

Livability — Greensboro

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1335

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guilford County · 487,190 people
• City population: 329,421
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• Population (ZIP): 60,651
• Household income: $59,563
• Rent vs Own: 44.4% rent · 55.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2462.0

Population outlook (Guilford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 584,596 people
• By 2030: 616,851 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 678,451 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 734,788 · +25.7%
• By 2075: 862,985 · +47.6%
• By 2100: 948,704 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guilford

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.2% · R 38.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.70%
• Current HPI: 243.2612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-28 Listed $195,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $672 · -47.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.