Harvest Ridge 1468 Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$255,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily · 638 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Harvest Ridge, Elgin's most prestigious and award-winning master-planned community, where thoughtful design and true community spirit come together. With new homes starting in the $180s and options ranging from 2 to 5 bedrooms, there’s something here for every stage of life. Built around the idea that a neighborhood should be more than just a place to live, Harvest Ridge is designed to foster connection-with inviting front porches that encourage conversation, and a wide range of amenities that bring people together. Spend your days enjoying the resort-style pool, fishing ponds, playscapes, event lawns, food trucks, coffee bar, basketball and sports fields, and more. A full-time Lifestyle Director ensures there's always something happening, from seasonal festivals to family movie nights. Located just east of Austin near Highway 290, and now home to a brand-new onsite elementary school, Harvest Ridge offers the perfect balance of small-town charm and modern convenience. It's more than a neighborhood-it's a community built for belonging.

Key facts

• Elementary school
• Lifestyle director
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• LIFESTYLE DIRECTOR
• ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY

🏗️ New construction. The $255,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,010.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-585 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 978 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 638 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,951 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 638 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.87%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,010
• List price: $255,990
• Delta: -19.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Bluestem Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,500 (+2%)	2mo	$202,500	$135	74
134 Summer Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,514 (+3%)	2mo	$259,990	$172	70
108 Bountiful Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (+4%)	1mo	$280,360	$183	69
136 Summer Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (+4%)	0mo	$279,360	$182	69
14504 Martial Eagle Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,499 (+2%)	1mo	$245,000	$163	67
165 Cider Creek Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,501 (+2%)	0mo	$266,710	$178	66
141 Summer Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,326 (-10%)	0mo	$223,750	$169	59
101 Bandera Woods Blvd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,499 (+2%)	2mo	$254,000	$169	56
120 Shenandoah Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,303 (-11%)	1mo	$220,000	$169	49
14516 Isidors Eagle Way	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (+12%)	0mo	$299,000	$182	49
329 Sullivan Way	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+7%)	2mo	$259,990	$165	48
14504 Wahlbergs Way	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,305 (-11%)	1mo	$272,900	$209	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $136,730
• Equity at exit: $287,389

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $432,537
• Equity at exit: $619,765

Cash invested: $89,323 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 113 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.7 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $267,990 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 978
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,785/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,791

Max offer price $234,288

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-365	-5% $-475	+0% $-585	+5% $-696	+10% $-806
Rent	-10% $-747	-5% $-666	+0% $-585	+5% $-505	+10% $-424
Rate	-1.0pp $-425	-0.5pp $-504	base $-585	+0.5pp $-668	+1.0pp $-752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,752
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Appleberry Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,750	$1.28	18d	1	0.12mi
149 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1770	$1,995	$1.13	24d	1	0.14mi
105 Appleberry Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1668	$1,999	$1.20	24d	1	0.17mi
12201 Token Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,795	$1.20	21d	1	0.17mi
109 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,690	$1.27	21d	1	0.18mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,750	$1.13	38d	1	0.18mi
13016 Roving Pass Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1859	$2,000	$1.08	34d	1	0.22mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,700	$1.12	36d	1	0.26mi
14213 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	18d	1	0.27mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	93d	1	0.28mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	51d	1	0.32mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	9d	1	0.35mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	53d	1	0.39mi
18744 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,750	$1.15	10d	1	0.40mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,845	$1.03	42d	1	0.41mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$1,699	$1.72	9d	11	0.44mi
158 Daylily Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,900	$1.34	9d	1	0.45mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	24d	1	0.47mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,850	$1.04	9d	1	0.47mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	73d	1	0.48mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,785	$1.17	42d	1	0.50mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	67d	1	0.52mi
121 Shenandoah Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,850	$1.05	21d	1	0.55mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	73d	1	0.58mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	53d	1	0.58mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	93d	1	0.63mi
16408 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,900	$1.25	18d	1	0.68mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	60d	1	0.70mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	64d	1	0.71mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	93d	1	0.71mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	73d	1	0.71mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	93d	1	0.72mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	62d	1	0.73mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	68d	1	0.76mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	52d	1	0.80mi
13028 Torrey Reynolds Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1525	$1,995	$1.31	38d	1	0.85mi
13028 Torrey Reynolds Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,850	$1.21	10d	1	0.85mi
14117 Hacienda Estates Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,785	$1.17	30d	1	0.92mi
18333 Willow Sage Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,700	$1.31	18d	1	1.38mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	93d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $255,990 Active 638 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $255,990 Active 636 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $255,990 Active 635 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $255,990 Active 634 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $255,990 Active 633 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $255,990 Active 630 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $255,990 Active 628 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $255,990 Active 627 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $255,990 Active 625 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $255,990 Active 623 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $255,990 Active 622 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $255,990 Active 621 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $255,990 Active 620 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $255,990 Active 619 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $255,990 Active 617 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $255,990 Active 616 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $255,990 Active 615 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $255,990 Active 614 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $255,990 Active 613 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $255,990 Active 612 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $255,990 Active 611 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $255,990 Active 610 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $255,990 Active 609 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $255,990 Active 608 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $255,990 Active 606 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $255,990 Active 605 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $255,990 Active 604 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $255,990 Active 602 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $255,990 Active 601 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $255,990 Active 600 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $255,990 Active 599 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $255,990 Active 598 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $255,990 Active 597 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $255,990 Active 596 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $255,990 Active 595 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $255,990 Active 593 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $255,990 Active 591 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $255,990 Active 590 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $255,990 Active 587 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $255,990 Active 586 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $255,990 Active 585 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $255,990 Active 584 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $255,990 Active 582 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $255,990 Active 578 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,990 Active 577 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,990 Active 576 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,990 Active 573 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,990 Active 572 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,990 Active 571 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,990 Active 570 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$4,785
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$12,871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,089
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and offers high ROI with updates that can enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Elgin El F TX #4,180/4,322 Nat'l #37,719/41,679 Middle Elgin Middle F TX #1,327/1,662 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Elgin H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 94,260 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $255,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $287,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $297,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $287,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-08 Listed $297,990 Zillow