126 Bailey Cv · Gluckstadt, MS 39046

$285,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 8,712 sqft lot $187/sqft · 6% below area Est $304k · 6% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming, nearly new 3-bedroom, 2-bath and the home is only 2 years old! This modern home features an open-concept floor plan ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, a gas range with built-in microwave, and ample cabinet space to meet all your storage needs. The spacious primary suite offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with double vanities, conveniently connected to the laundry room for added functionality. This home has a covered back yard patio and a nice craft room or man-cave located off the back patio. Located in the highly sought-after Madison County School District within the Germantown school zone, this move-in-ready home is just minutes from Gluckstadt and nearby cities, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Private bath
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $286k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,704 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,564
• List price: $285,900
• Delta: -5.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
266 Chartleigh Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,506 (-2%)	0mo	$290,000	$193	94
260 Chartleigh Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+3%)	5mo	$289,900	$184	88
103 Brunswick Cv	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+2%)	4mo	$279,900	$178	85
107 Kings Xing	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-1%)	3mo	$265,000	$174	81
109 Allie Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+1%)	2mo	$279,500	$180	80
146 Allie Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+2%)	1mo	$282,500	$181	80
117 Bailey Cv	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+10%)	4mo	$299,999	$179	77
169 Allie Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+5%)	6mo	$295,000	$183	76
107 Highbury Cv	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+10%)	6mo	$249,900	$148	61
712 Honeysuckle Loop	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+12%)	3mo	$314,900	$185	51
104 Bridge Hollow Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+9%)	4mo	$279,000	$167	50
111 Bridge Park Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+15%)	6mo	$269,900	$154	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-55,993
• Equity at exit: $42,629

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-61,066
• Equity at exit: $24,719

Cash invested: $80,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,499
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$357 /mo · $4,288/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,530

Max offer price $263,829

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,475
• Closing costs: $8,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Trailbridge Crossing Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	14d	1	0.81mi
104 Moss Crk Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,156	$1.51	44d	1	1.43mi
102 Moss Crk Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,253	$1.50	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming, nearly new 3-bedroom, 2-bath and the home is only 2 years old! This modern home features an open-concept floor plan ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, a gas range with built-in microwave, and ample cabinet space to meet all your storage needs. The spacious primary suite offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with double vanities, conveniently connected to the laundry room for added functionality. This home has a covered back yard patio and a nice craft room or man-cave located off the back patio. Located in the highly sought-after Madison County School District within the Germantown school zone, this move-in-ready home is just minutes from Gluckstadt and nearby cities, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Schedule your private showing today!

2. 2026-04-17
   price $285,900 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming, nearly new 3-bedroom, 2-bath and the home is only 2 years old! This modern home features an open-concept floor plan ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, a gas range with built-in microwave, and ample cabinet space to meet all your storage needs. The spacious primary suite offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with double vanities, conveniently connected to the laundry room for added functionality. This home has a covered back yard patio and a nice craft room or man-cave located off the back patio. Located in the highly sought-after Madison County School District within the Germantown school zone, this move-in-ready home is just minutes from Gluckstadt and nearby cities, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Schedule your private showing today!

3. 2026-04-11
   status Active 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming, nearly new 3-bedroom, 2-bath and the home is only 2 years old! This modern home features an open-concept floor plan ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, a gas range with built-in microwave, and ample cabinet space to meet all your storage needs. The spacious primary suite offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with double vanities, conveniently connected to the laundry room for added functionality. This home has a covered back yard patio and a nice craft room or man-cave located off the back patio. Located in the highly sought-after Madison County School District within the Germantown school zone, this move-in-ready home is just minutes from Gluckstadt and nearby cities, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Schedule your private showing today!

4. 2026-03-01
   status Pending 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming, nearly new 3-bedroom, 2-bath and the home is only 2 years old! This modern home features an open-concept floor plan ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, a gas range with built-in microwave, and ample cabinet space to meet all your storage needs. The spacious primary suite offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with double vanities, conveniently connected to the laundry room for added functionality. This home has a covered back yard patio and a nice craft room or man-cave located off the back patio. Located in the highly sought-after Madison County School District within the Germantown school zone, this move-in-ready home is just minutes from Gluckstadt and nearby cities, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Schedule your private showing today!

5. 2026-01-19
   price $289,900 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming, nearly new 3-bedroom, 2-bath and the home is only 2 years old! This modern home features an open-concept floor plan ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, a gas range with built-in microwave, and ample cabinet space to meet all your storage needs. The spacious primary suite offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with double vanities, conveniently connected to the laundry room for added functionality. This home has a covered back yard patio and a nice craft room or man-cave located off the back patio. Located in the highly sought-after Madison County School District within the Germantown school zone, this move-in-ready home is just minutes from Gluckstadt and nearby cities, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Schedule your private showing today!

6. 2026-01-18
   listed $298,500 Active 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming, nearly new 3-bedroom, 2-bath and the home is only 2 years old! This modern home features an open-concept floor plan ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, a gas range with built-in microwave, and ample cabinet space to meet all your storage needs. The spacious primary suite offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with double vanities, conveniently connected to the laundry room for added functionality. This home has a covered back yard patio and a nice craft room or man-cave located off the back patio. Located in the highly sought-after Madison County School District within the Germantown school zone, this move-in-ready home is just minutes from Gluckstadt and nearby cities, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Schedule your private showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,015
• − Property taxes: −$4,288
• − Insurance: −$1,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,244
• − Management: −$2,244
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$8,317
• Taxable loss: −$6,769
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,624
• After-tax cash flow: $-206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This nearly new home in Gluckstadt, MS, offers a good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It's located in a desirable school district and has a good curb appeal. Minor updates like painting the exterior and replacing windows can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and home value
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Improves air circulation and aesthetics
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and view

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Improves air circulation and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and view ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gluckstadt

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,160

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $285,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-11 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-03-01 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $289,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-18 Listed $298,500 MLSU