4421 Aledo St · Houston, TX 77051

$99,684

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 676 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1948 5,000 sqft lot Est $95k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Prime 5,000 sq ft residential lot located in the desirable 77051 area, an active redevelopment zone with consistent new construction and increasing demand. Ideal for duplex or single-family development, offering multiple exit strategies for builders and investors. The lot features level topography with street frontage and utilities available nearby. Surrounded by both established homes and modern new builds, supporting strong resale and rental potential. Convenient access to Almeda Rd, Hwy 288, I-610, Downtown Houston, and the Texas Medical Center makes this location especially attractive for long-term growth and income-producing projects.

Key facts

• Residential lot
• Utilities available
• Level topography

Tags

• RESIDENTIAL LOT
• LEVEL TOPOGRAPHY
• STREET FRONTAGE
• UTILITIES AVAILABLE
• STRONG RESALE POTENTIAL
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($689 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,684

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,316
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4425 Galesburg St	0.10mi	2/1.0	720 (+6%)	2mo	$79,000	$110	83
4357 Elmwood St	0.08mi	2/1.0	650 (-4%)	17mo	$87,000	$134	76
8422 Southview St	0.35mi	2/1.0	700 (+4%)	8mo	$99,000	$141	71
4411 Maggie St	0.36mi	2/1.0	660 (-2%)	23mo	$125,000	$189	60
3910 Stassen St	0.47mi	1/1.0 (-1)	640 (-5%)	22mo	$135,000	$211	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $66,774
• Equity at exit: $89,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $192,877
• Equity at exit: $193,664

Cash invested: $27,912 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$523
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,783/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $99,684

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $192	+0% $164	+5% $136	+10% $107
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $120	+0% $164	+5% $208	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $214	-0.5pp $189	base $164	+0.5pp $138	+1.0pp $112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,921
• Closing costs: $2,991
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4207 Phlox St Unit 1 BEDROOM 4 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$660	$1.02	44d	1	0.64mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	0d	2	0.64mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	19d	1	0.65mi
1600 Jester St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	641	$1,195	$1.86	0d	3	0.82mi
5042 Mallow St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	6d	1	1.04mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$800	$1.18	44d	1	1.04mi
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	11d	1	1.09mi
5010 Carmen St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	44d	1	1.09mi
4923 Paula St Apt 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	4d	1	1.11mi
5038 Carmen St Apt 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	4d	1	1.14mi
7316 La Salette St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	513	$1,100	$2.14	25d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-01-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-05
   listed $99,684 Active
3. 1992-01-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$41/yr (+$3/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,584
• − Property taxes: −$1,783
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,066
• − Management: −$1,066
• − Depreciation: −$2,900
• Taxable income: $422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$101
• After-tax cash flow: $1,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $99,684 HARMLS
• 1992-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,783 · +21.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.