5616 Newcastle Ct #5311 · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$319,997

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,741 sqft · Condo · 40 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $846/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious single-story attached home features an open layout among the dining room, kitchen and living room, with sliding doors that extend to the lanai for outdoor activities. Near the foyer are two secondary bedrooms, while the owner's suite is tucked away on the other side for extra privacy. Tee off on the 18-hole Gordon Lewis-designed course and relax at the nearly 17,000 sq. ft. clubhouse with on-site dining. Enjoy the vastness of the fitness and spa amenities and resort-style pool area for ultimate relaxation. Bundled social memberships available!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open layout
• Sliding doors

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SLIDING DOORS
• LANAI
• GATED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is part of a multi-unit building (1 unit per floor; 4 units in building; single-story); Lot described as regular with developer-provided measurements; Has lake waterfront and views of golf course and water; irrigation includes lake/canal and reclaimed water; Restrictions include architectural, deeded, no commercial, no RV
• Financial info: Quarterly HOA and condo fee structure (fees vary; one-time fee may apply); Total annual recurring HOA-related fees reported
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master HOA fee charged quarterly; HOA covers cable, golf course, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, on-site manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, repairs, reserves, street lights, and street maintenance; On-site management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa/hot tub, exercise room and full-service spa, fitness center (attended), golf course, pickleball, putting green, restaurant, sauna, sidewalks, streetlights, tennis courts, underground utilities, community park, community room; Private membership options available; Community type: gated, golf course, tennis

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Gated community with guard at gate
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available; Electric service (central)
• Home design: Residential property; Low rise (1-3) carriage/coach style; Rear exposure facing east; Located in The National Golf & Country Club at Ave Maria community
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Tile roof; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Patio; Automatic sprinkler system; Impact resistant doors and windows; Single hung and sliding windows; Stucco exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator/ice maker; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (split bedroom floor plan)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; Fire sprinkler system; Foyer; French doors; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Home office; Great room; Guest room; Guest bath; Screened balcony; Screened lanai/porch; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door; Home automation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $320k).
• Recommended offer: $310k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,340/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $310,397 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.97%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-10,380
• Equity at exit: $76,503

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $36,136
• Equity at exit: $79,705

Cash invested: $89,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$846
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$911
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,063

Max offer price $319,997

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $330	+0% $219	+5% $108	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $48	+0% $219	+5% $390	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $300	base $219	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,999
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4118 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,700	$3.61	24d	1	0.10mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4135 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,195	$1.96	24d	1	0.10mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4143 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	24d	1	0.10mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4137 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	21d	1	0.10mi
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,295	$2.80	21d	1	0.10mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,495	$4.91	24d	1	0.10mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	24d	1	0.10mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,495	$2.01	24d	1	0.11mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3013 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,595	$1.90	21d	1	0.11mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3026 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	0.11mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	24d	1	0.12mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,995	$2.21	24d	1	0.12mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2825 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	24d	1	0.12mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2822 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,795	$4.28	24d	1	0.12mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	24d	1	0.12mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	24d	1	0.13mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,250	$3.59	12d	1	0.13mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	12d	1	0.14mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4318 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,200	$1.69	21d	1	0.15mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir Unit 1545996P Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,581	$2.02	14d	1	0.15mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4323 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	21d	1	0.15mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4416 1 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,300	$1.99	24d	1	0.15mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4432AVE Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1283	$2,495	$1.94	24d	1	0.15mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,495	$2.16	24d	1	0.16mi
5555 Double Eagle Cir #3914 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	24d	1	0.17mi
5555 Double Eagle Cir #3936 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	14d	1	0.17mi
5555 Double Eagle Cir #3918 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$5,995	$4.61	24d	1	0.17mi
5555 Double Eagle Cir Unit 3916 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,950	$5.16	24d	1	0.17mi
5555 Double Eagle Cir #3913 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	24d	1	0.17mi
5674 Melbourne Ct Unit 7721 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$7,295	$3.46	12d	1	0.17mi
5680 Melbourne Ct #7521 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$2,650	$1.26	3d	1	0.17mi
5704 Melbourne Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$3,995	$2.29	24d	1	0.18mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	21d	1	0.20mi
5527 Double Eagle Cir Unit 3838 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,295	$1.76	24d	1	0.21mi
5527 Double Eagle Cir Unit 3815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	24d	1	0.21mi
5739 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$3,700	$2.16	24d	1	0.23mi
5739 Oakmont Ct #8412 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	24d	1	0.23mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	21d	1	0.23mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	21d	1	0.23mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$3,295	$2.94	24d	1	0.23mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $846 · $10,152/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-16
   listed $319,997 Active
2. 2026-04-04
   price $319,997 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   This spacious single-story attached home features an open layout among the dining room, kitchen and living room, with sliding doors that extend to the lanai for outdoor activities. Near the foyer are two secondary bedrooms, while the owner's suite is tucked away on the other side for extra privacy. Tee off on the 18-hole Gordon Lewis-designed course and relax at the nearly 17,000 sq. ft. clubhouse with on-site dining. Enjoy the vastness of the fitness and spa amenities and resort-style pool area for ultimate relaxation. Bundled social memberships available!

3. 2026-03-22
   listed $329,997 Active 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   This spacious single-story attached home features an open layout among the dining room, kitchen and living room, with sliding doors that extend to the lanai for outdoor activities. Near the foyer are two secondary bedrooms, while the owner's suite is tucked away on the other side for extra privacy. Tee off on the 18-hole Gordon Lewis-designed course and relax at the nearly 17,000 sq. ft. clubhouse with on-site dining. Enjoy the vastness of the fitness and spa amenities and resort-style pool area for ultimate relaxation. Bundled social memberships available!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$3,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,166
• − Management: −$4,166
• − HOA: −$10,152
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$1,864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$447
• After-tax cash flow: $3,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready single-story attached home features an open layout with modern finishes and a spacious floor plan. The property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $319,997 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $319,997 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Listed $329,997 Zillow