204 S Elm St · Mounds, IL 62964

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1920 Est $46k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large 3 bedroom 1 bath brick home. Features spacious rooms and unfinished basement, call today for more information.

Key facts

• Huge basement
• Big back yard
• Detached garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• BIG BACK YARD
• HUGE BASEMENT
• GIANT UNFINISHED ATTIC
• PROPANE HEATER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $610 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,326 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Meridian CUSD 101 (rural): math 2% / reading 2% proficiency, ranked #618 of 620 in IL (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pulaski County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $40k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.36%
• DSCR: 3.91
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $45,936
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 S Elm St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,584 (0%)	21mo	$12,000	$8	83
108 N Spencer St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,707 (+8%)	11mo	$50,000	$29	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $43,714
• Equity at exit: $17,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.04×
• Total profit: $101,240
• Equity at exit: $27,718

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62964

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,134/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $406

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $633	-5% $621	+0% $610	+5% $599	+10% $587
Rent	-10% $517	-5% $563	+0% $610	+5% $657	+10% $703
Rate	-1.0pp $630	-0.5pp $620	base $610	+0.5pp $600	+1.0pp $589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $40,000 Active 946-char remark
18. 2024-09-23
    soldstatus $12,000 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Large 3 bedroom 1 bath brick home. Features spacious rooms and unfinished basement, call today for more information.

19. 2024-09-23
    soldstatus $12,000 Closed 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Large 3 bedroom 1 bath brick home. Features spacious rooms and unfinished basement, call today for more information.

20. 2024-08-18
    status Pending 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Large 3 bedroom 1 bath brick home. Features spacious rooms and unfinished basement, call today for more information.

21. 2024-08-08
    price $12,900 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Large 3 bedroom 1 bath brick home. Features spacious rooms and unfinished basement, call today for more information.

22. 2024-07-09
    price $16,875 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Large 3 bedroom 1 bath brick home. Features spacious rooms and unfinished basement, call today for more information.

23. 2024-06-04
    price $22,500 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Large 3 bedroom 1 bath brick home. Features spacious rooms and unfinished basement, call today for more information.

24. 2024-05-06
    listed $12,900 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Large 3 bedroom 1 bath brick home. Features spacious rooms and unfinished basement, call today for more information.

25. 2024-05-06
    listed $29,900 Active 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Large 3 bedroom 1 bath brick home. Features spacious rooms and unfinished basement, call today for more information.

26. 2024-05-03
    historical
27. 2024-05-02
    historical
28. 2024-05-02
    price
29. 2024-03-26
    listed Active
30. 2021-08-06
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,134 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,134 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,134
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,131
• − Management: −$1,131
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $7,140
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,714
• After-tax cash flow: $5,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meridian CUSD 101
• NCES district ID: 1726970
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -9.50%
• Reading proficiency: 2% ▼ -12.50%
• Median HH income: $30,833
• Composite: 1.58/100
• National rank: #10106
• State rank: #618 of 620 in IL

Livability — Mounds

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #25291

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mounds, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,028

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,927 people
• By 2030: 4,542 · -7.8%
• By 2040: 3,752 · -23.8%
• By 2050: 3,081 · -37.5%
• By 2075: 1,982 · -59.8%
• By 2100: 1,365 · -72.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 12% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.2) · D 32.4% · R 66.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: 1.4pp · 2024: -34.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.2 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+210.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $40,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-09-23 Sold (MLS) $12,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Sold (MLS) $12,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-18 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $12,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-09 Price Changed $16,875 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $22,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-06 Listed $29,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-06 Listed $12,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-03 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-02 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-02 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-26 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+28.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,134 · +2379.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.