4431 Hickory Ln · Joplin, MO 64804

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Other public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1967 0.67 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity Awaits in Joplin - Spacious Ranch on . 67 Acre with Pool!This 1,728 sq ft ranch-style home offers space, character, and incredible potential for the right buyer. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the layout includes a large living room and a cozy wood-burning fireplace just off the dining area--perfect for creating a warm, inviting gathering space. The home also includes an oversized 2-car garage, giving you plenty of room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop setup. Step outside and you'll find a generous . 67-acre lot with an in-ground swimming pool, offering the potential for a fantastic backyard retreat with some restoration. This home is priced with updates in mind and w

Key facts

• Generous lot
• 0.67 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• IN GROUND SWIMMING POOL
• GENEROUS LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Additional driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Wood siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built above grade: 1,728 finished area
• Exterior features: Privacy, chain link, and wood fencing; In-ground private pool; Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Wood heating; Central air conditioning; Fireplace(s) for supplemental heat
• Interior features: Insulated, double-pane windows; Masonry wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.1% in Joplin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#318 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Joplin Schools (urban): math 30% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #231 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stapleton Elem. (math 38% / reading 47%, grade F, #477 of 1,115 statewide, top 43%, 410 students, 49% FRL); South Middle (math 40% / reading 48%, grade D, #121 of 391 statewide, top 32%, 573 students, 47% FRL); Joplin High (math 32% / reading 46%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 2,233 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.7%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 110 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,281 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,268
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $54,818
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64804

• Rents YoY: 15.7%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,673 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $790/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3311 Hammons Blvd Joplin, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$1,495	$1.79	21d	26	0.66mi
4502 Connecticut Ave Joplin, MO	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,650	$0.97	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,745 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$955/yr (+$80/mo · 120.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$790
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,606
• − Management: −$1,606
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$138
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$33
• After-tax cash flow: $2,881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joplin Schools
• NCES district ID: 2916350
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,648
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6657
• State rank: #231 of 324 in MO

Livability — Joplin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #14578

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Joplin, MO
• County: Newton County · 37,016 people
• City population: 73,303
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• Population (ZIP): 37,016
• Household income: $62,574
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1082.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,151 people
• By 2030: 58,961 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 57,609 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 54,775 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 46,140 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 34,348 · -41.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.6) · D 20.2% · R 78.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.5pp toward R · 2008: -40.1pp · 2024: -58.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.6 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+58.7 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+40.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.80%
• Current HPI: 279.4471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.66%
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-16 Listed $179,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $790 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.