1016 Country Club Dr · Mission, TX 78572

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1993 10,683 sqft lot $87/sqft · 22% below area Est $255k · 22% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect opportunity in the heart of Mission with this charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. Ideally situated near schools, shopping, and dining, this property offers both convenience and potential. With a touch of TLC, it can be transformed into your dream forever home. Enjoy the benefits of South Texas living with an outdoor above-ground swimming pool, perfect for relaxation and entertaining year-round. Don't miss this chance to create lasting memories in a vibrant community!

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near dining
• Near shopping

Tags

• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,069/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1714% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,948
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -21.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1500 N Bryan Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	2,344 (+2%)	8mo	$279,000	$119	82
1001 Ursula St	0.19mi	3/3.0	2,264 (-2%)	5mo	$379,000	$167	80
1101 Country Club Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,153 (-6%)	12mo	$255,000	$118	72
1106 Fairway Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,468 (+7%)	1mo	$539,000	$218	72
1502 Dora Jeanne Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,336 (+2%)	12mo	$355,000	$152	56
2109 Melinda Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,187 (-5%)	7mo	$270,000	$123	52
2212 N Bryan Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,524 (+10%)	4mo	$329,000	$130	51
1004 N Francisco Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,072 (-10%)	3mo	$249,000	$120	46
1304 E 22nd St	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,014 (-12%)	16mo	$297,000	$147	41
1512 E 22nd St	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (-6%)	12mo	$279,000	$129	37
1501 Sheri Lee Dr	0.58mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,595 (+13%)	8mo	$325,000	$125	34
1801 Melissa Rae Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,634 (+14%)	10mo	$449,900	$171	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-22,855
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,829
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,545/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,800

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1301 San Felipe Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2788	$2,100	$0.75	43d	1	0.39mi
2216 Robyn Ln Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	2033	$2,000	$0.98	21d	1	0.50mi
1606 Terrace Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2127	$2,600	$1.22	14d	1	0.74mi
1604 Toni Ln Mission, TX	2.0	2.5	2848	$1,800	$0.63	14d	1	0.78mi
1801 Crown Pointe Blvd Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,650	$1.03	14d	1	0.98mi
1412 E 28th St Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,300	$1.11	23d	1	1.16mi
607 Alameda Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	44d	1	1.23mi
1511 E 28th St Mission, TX	4.0	2.5	2741	$2,400	$0.88	43d	1	1.23mi
2516 Wisteria Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,800	$1.36	14d	1	1.34mi
2514 Yarrow St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,700	$1.61	23d	1	1.37mi
2212 Lilly Cove Dr Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	1950	$1,750	$0.90	43d	1	1.39mi
2200 E 19th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$1,950	$1.07	43d	1	1.40mi
2203 E 19th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $199,000 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    price $215,000 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Discover the perfect opportunity in the heart of Mission with this charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. Ideally situated near schools, shopping, and dining, this property offers both convenience and potential. With a touch of TLC, it can be transformed into your dream forever home. Enjoy the benefits of South Texas living with an outdoor above-ground swimming pool, perfect for relaxation and entertaining year-round. Don't miss this chance to create lasting memories in a vibrant community!

16. 2026-04-06
    price $215,000 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Discover the perfect opportunity in the heart of Mission with this charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. Ideally situated near schools, shopping, and dining, this property offers both convenience and potential. With a touch of TLC, it can be transformed into your dream forever home. Enjoy the benefits of South Texas living with an outdoor above-ground swimming pool, perfect for relaxation and entertaining year-round. Don't miss this chance to create lasting memories in a vibrant community!

17. 2026-02-16
    price $239,000 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Discover the perfect opportunity in the heart of Mission with this charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. Ideally situated near schools, shopping, and dining, this property offers both convenience and potential. With a touch of TLC, it can be transformed into your dream forever home. Enjoy the benefits of South Texas living with an outdoor above-ground swimming pool, perfect for relaxation and entertaining year-round. Don't miss this chance to create lasting memories in a vibrant community!

18. 2026-02-16
    price $239,000 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Discover the perfect opportunity in the heart of Mission with this charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. Ideally situated near schools, shopping, and dining, this property offers both convenience and potential. With a touch of TLC, it can be transformed into your dream forever home. Enjoy the benefits of South Texas living with an outdoor above-ground swimming pool, perfect for relaxation and entertaining year-round. Don't miss this chance to create lasting memories in a vibrant community!

19. 2025-12-15
    listed $245,000 Active 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Discover the perfect opportunity in the heart of Mission with this charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. Ideally situated near schools, shopping, and dining, this property offers both convenience and potential. With a touch of TLC, it can be transformed into your dream forever home. Enjoy the benefits of South Texas living with an outdoor above-ground swimming pool, perfect for relaxation and entertaining year-round. Don't miss this chance to create lasting memories in a vibrant community!

20. 2025-12-15
    listed $245,000 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Discover the perfect opportunity in the heart of Mission with this charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. Ideally situated near schools, shopping, and dining, this property offers both convenience and potential. With a touch of TLC, it can be transformed into your dream forever home. Enjoy the benefits of South Texas living with an outdoor above-ground swimming pool, perfect for relaxation and entertaining year-round. Don't miss this chance to create lasting memories in a vibrant community!

21. 2016-05-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,545 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$97/yr (+$8/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,545
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,986
• − Management: −$1,986
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$618
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$148
• After-tax cash flow: $2,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $215,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $215,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $239,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $239,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $245,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $245,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2016-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,545 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.