17127 James Trl · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$427,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,045 sqft · Land · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 6,024 sqft lot $62/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one-story, all concrete block constructed, two-car garage home has an open concept floor plan, featuring a spacious kitchen overlooking large living and dining areas that flow out to an oversized covered lanai, a perfect place to relax or dine alfresco. At the front of the home, you will find two bedrooms that share a full bath, a laundry room off the garage, a fourth bedroom that is an optional den, and a powder bath. Bedroom 1, which includes Bathroom 1, is located at the back of the home for optimum privacy. This home comes with stainless-steel dishwasher, range, and microwave.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• SMART HOME AUTOMATION SYSTEM
• CLUBHOUSE
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• DOG PARK
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Total living area reported by builder: 2,045 (building area total 2,755); Total acreage: 0 to less than 1/4 acre
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Home warranty included
• HOA & community: Legacy Preserve Homeowner’s Association (HOA required; association approval required); Monthly HOA approximately $62.33 (quarterly fee listed as $187); Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, playground; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Underground utilities; Sprinkler well
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (projected completion August 7, 2026); One story; Faces northwest; Under construction
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: D.R. Horton; Builder model: Lantana; Builder license CBC1259187; Permit COBLD2508-2840
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Level, paved lot; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Stone counters; Walk-in closets; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Irrigation equipment

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $427k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $309,576 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-95,897
• Equity at exit: $63,667

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-141,533
• Equity at exit: $36,919

Cash invested: $119,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,239
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,902/yr
• Insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,444

Max offer price $378,358

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,750
• Closing costs: $12,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16823 Destrehen Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,490	$1.43	3d	1	0.39mi
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	23d	1	0.70mi
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.77mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $427,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 640-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   price $427,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $429,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $434,990 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $434,990 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $434,990 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $434,990 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $434,990 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $434,990 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $434,990 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $434,990 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $434,990
18. 2026-05-05
    price $434,990 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    This one-story, all concrete block constructed, two-car garage home has an open concept floor plan, featuring a spacious kitchen overlooking large living and dining areas that flow out to an oversized covered lanai, a perfect place to relax or dine alfresco. At the front of the home, you will find two bedrooms that share a full bath, a laundry room off the garage, a fourth bedroom that is an optional den, and a powder bath. Bedroom 1, which includes Bathroom 1, is located at the back of the home for optimum privacy. This home comes with stainless-steel dishwasher, range, and microwave.

19. 2026-04-25
    listed $454,990 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    This one-story, all concrete block constructed, two-car garage home has an open concept floor plan, featuring a spacious kitchen overlooking large living and dining areas that flow out to an oversized covered lanai, a perfect place to relax or dine alfresco. At the front of the home, you will find two bedrooms that share a full bath, a laundry room off the garage, a fourth bedroom that is an optional den, and a powder bath. Bedroom 1, which includes Bathroom 1, is located at the back of the home for optimum privacy. This home comes with stainless-steel dishwasher, range, and microwave.

20. 2026-04-24
    listed $454,990 Active
21. 2026-01-07
    soldstatus $2,002,200
22. 2025-06-02
    soldstatus $7,936,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,902 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,544 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: +$642/yr (+$53/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,919
• − Property taxes: −$2,902
• − Insurance: −$2,135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,972
• − Management: −$2,972
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$12,422
• Taxable loss: −$10,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,620
• After-tax cash flow: $-684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $434,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $434,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Listed $454,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Listed $454,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $2,002,200 Public Records
• 2025-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $7,936,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+51633.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,902 · +51633.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.