433 W Henderson St · Montpelier, IN 47359

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1971 8,364 sqft lot $53/sqft · 19% below area Est $61k · 19% under ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you like living in a small town, this 3 bedroom home is a perfect fit for you. What we need is a new owner to take care of this beauty. Come and see it yourself!!!

Key facts

• 8,364 sq ft lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 98 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($970 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#230 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Blackford County Schools (town): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #164 of 301 in IN (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Blackford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Blackford County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $45,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.08%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,495
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -18.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
433 W Henderson St	0.00mi	3/1.0	936 (0%)	1mo	$50,000	$53	100
440 W Green St	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	958 (+2%)	22mo	$111,900	$117	60
607 S Elm St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-8%)	18mo	$70,000	$81	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $41,138
• Equity at exit: $33,666

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.26×
• Total profit: $101,393
• Equity at exit: $63,141

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47359

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,182/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $482

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   If you like living in a small town, this 3 bedroom home is a perfect fit for you. What we need is a new owner to take care of this beauty. Come and see it yourself!!!

2. 2026-05-07
   price $49,900 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   If you like living in a small town, this 3 bedroom home is a perfect fit for you. What we need is a new owner to take care of this beauty. Come and see it yourself!!!

3. 2026-04-26
   price $55,000 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   If you like living in a small town, this 3 bedroom home is a perfect fit for you. What we need is a new owner to take care of this beauty. Come and see it yourself!!!

4. 2026-04-20
   price $59,900 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   If you like living in a small town, this 3 bedroom home is a perfect fit for you. What we need is a new owner to take care of this beauty. Come and see it yourself!!!

5. 2026-04-15
   price $64,900 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   If you like living in a small town, this 3 bedroom home is a perfect fit for you. What we need is a new owner to take care of this beauty. Come and see it yourself!!!

6. 2026-02-28
   price $69,900 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   If you like living in a small town, this 3 bedroom home is a perfect fit for you. What we need is a new owner to take care of this beauty. Come and see it yourself!!!

7. 2026-02-11
   price $80,000 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   If you like living in a small town, this 3 bedroom home is a perfect fit for you. What we need is a new owner to take care of this beauty. Come and see it yourself!!!

8. 2026-01-30
   listed $85,000 Active 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   If you like living in a small town, this 3 bedroom home is a perfect fit for you. What we need is a new owner to take care of this beauty. Come and see it yourself!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,182 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,182 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,182
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$931
• − Management: −$931
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,098
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$983
• After-tax cash flow: $3,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blackford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1800570
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,653
• Composite: 32.67/100
• National rank: #5656
• State rank: #164 of 301 in IN

Livability — Montpelier

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #9968

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montpelier, IN
• City population: 3,688
• Population (ZIP): 3,688

Population outlook (Blackford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,183 people
• By 2030: 10,542 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 9,292 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 8,176 · -26.9%
• By 2075: 6,549 · -41.4%
• By 2100: 5,636 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Blackford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 23.9% · R 74.2% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.2pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+16.5 2008: R+0.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.72%
• Current HPI: 231.2009
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-41.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $49,900 IRMLS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $55,000 IRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $59,900 IRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $64,900 IRMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $69,900 IRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $80,000 IRMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $85,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+69.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,182 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.