896 Berry Hill Rd · Tappahannock, VA 22560

$82,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1.09 acres located 3 miles from the Rappahannock River

Key facts

• 1.09 acres
• Built 1970

Tags

• 1.09 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 2.3% in Tappahannock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#439 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Essex County Public School District (town): math 22% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #124 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tappahannock Elementary (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 334 students, 115% FRL); James H. Cary Intermediate (math 16% / reading 51%, grade F, #331 of 342 statewide, top 97%, 333 students, 102% FRL); Essex High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #305 of 319 statewide, top 97%, 514 students, 101% FRL) — zoned schools average 106% FRL vs 62% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Essex County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.70%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $30,196
• Equity at exit: $12,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $82,211
• Equity at exit: $7,090

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22560

• Home prices YoY: -7.3%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $273/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $616

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $730	-5% $706	+0% $683	+5% $660	+10% $637
Rent	-10% $566	-5% $625	+0% $683	+5% $742	+10% $800
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $704	base $683	+0.5pp $662	+1.0pp $640

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $82,000 Active
2. 2017-03-20
   historical
3. 2017-02-15
   listed $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $273 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$400/yr (+$33/mo · 146.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 40% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$273
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $7,268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,744
• After-tax cash flow: $6,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Essex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101200
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,651
• Composite: 32.7/100
• National rank: #5645
• State rank: #124 of 131 in VA

Livability — Tappahannock

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #439
• US rank: #18835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,523

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,027 people
• By 2030: 10,772 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 10,006 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 9,043 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 6,629 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 4,618 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 46% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.8) · D 45.8% · R 53.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 10.3pp · 2024: -7.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.8 2020: R+0.6 2016: R+2.2 2012: D+7.2 2008: D+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.57%
• Current HPI: 173.353
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+412.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $82,000 FSBO.com
• 2017-03-20 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2017-02-15 Listed $16,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $273 · +47.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.