20548 Pebble Glen Dr · Estero, FL 33928

$429,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2024 9,400 sqft lot Est $437k · at est. $377/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the highly sought-after Contour model by PulteGroup, offering modern design, quality construction, and exceptional upgrades throughout! This beautifully maintained residence features 2 bedrooms plus a den, 2 full baths, a 2-car garage, and a nearly 60-foot-long driveway. Soaring 10-foot ceilings and upgraded 8-foot doors enhance the open, airy feel. The den is enclosed with elegant French glass doors, making it ideal for a home office or flex space. Enjoy peace of mind with impact windows and doors, an impact glass front door, a serviced A/C unit, and the home is located in a non-flood zone. As an end lot situated home, the property offers a larger lot with. The extended lanai an

Key facts

• Upgraded cabinetry
• Extended lanai
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• IMPACT WINDOWS AND DOORS
• IMPACT GLASS FRONT DOOR
• EXTENDED LANAI
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• WESTERN REAR EXPOSURE
• UPGRADED CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Zoning: MPD; Oversize lot; Lot area about 0.2158 acres; Restrictions: Architectural and deeded
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (professional management); HOA fee approximately $181 monthly; Master HOA fee approximately $196.53 monthly; Total annual recurring HOA fees approximately $5,016; One-time fees approximately $5,000; HOA maintains irrigation water, lawn/land, street maintenance, legal/accounting; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, bocce, basketball, dog park, sidewalks, community park, community room, internet access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Impact resistant doors and windows
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family home; 1 story / ranch; Built in 2024; Rear exposure facing west; Located in Verdana Village (gated community)
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Fence; Room for a pool; Impact resistant windows and doors; Stucco finish; Tile roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Pantry; Cooktop (gas); Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: French doors; Den / study; Guest room; Guest bath; Screened lanai/porch; Open floor plan (other)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door; Smoke detector

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $390k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $395k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $390k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 675 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,946/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($390k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 15221% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $390,132 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $436,955
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20590 Pebble Glen Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	3mo	$437,000	$311	94
20564 Pebble Glen Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	8mo	$440,000	$313	92
20506 Pebble Glen Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	14mo	$415,000	$295	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-94,804
• Equity at exit: $63,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-144,113
• Equity at exit: $37,092

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 675
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$532 /mo · $6,379/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$377
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$829
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,224

Max offer price $390,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-99	+0% $-220	+5% $-341	+10% $-463
Rent	-10% $-532	-5% $-376	+0% $-220	+5% $-64	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-111	base $-220	+0.5pp $-331	+1.0pp $-444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	26d	1	0.12mi
19218 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	16d	1	0.75mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $377 · $4,524/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $429,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $429,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $429,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $429,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-04-13
    listed $2,800
14. 2026-03-23
    price $429,000
15. 2026-03-03
    listed $440,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,379 · $532/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,379 · $532/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$6,379
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,788
• − Management: −$3,788
• − HOA: −$4,524
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$9,787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,349
• After-tax cash flow: $-291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed for Rent $2,800 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $429,000 BEARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $440,000 BEARMLS

Property tax history

+75.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,379 · +115.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.