540 Franklinville Rd · Laurel, NY 11948

$699,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 1900 1.77 ac lot $350/sqft · 28% below area Est $970k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Vacant. Sold As Is. Seller Makes No Representation

Key facts

• 1.77 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $699k).
• Recommended offer: $678k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#965 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $70k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $196k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($678k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $350k; list at $699k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $678,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.96%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $970,000
• List price: $699,000
• Delta: -27.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1400 Aldrich Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,800 (-10%)	8mo	$750,000	$417	53
2075 Main Rd	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,872 (-6%)	14mo	$825,000	$441	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $431,455
• Equity at exit: $595,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $1,198,417
• Equity at exit: $1,250,240

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11948

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax from tax record: −$774 /mo · $9,282/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,602
• Net cashflow: $1,297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,988

Max offer price $699,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,693	-5% $1,495	+0% $1,297	+5% $1,100	+10% $902
Rent	-10% $695	-5% $996	+0% $1,297	+5% $1,599	+10% $1,900
Rate	-1.0pp $1,650	-0.5pp $1,475	base $1,297	+0.5pp $1,116	+1.0pp $932

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Eileen Cir Jamesport, NY	3.0	2.0	1572	$10,000	$6.36	21d	1	0.97mi
33 Beach Rd Laurel, NY	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,500	$2.80	45d	1	1.35mi
1727 Main Rd Unit 1538864P Laurel, NY	3.0	2.5	1937	$7,548	$3.90	15d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $699,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $699,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $699,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $699,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $699,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $699,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $699,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $699,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $699,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $699,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $699,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $699,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $699,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $699,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $699,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $750,000 Active 50-char remark
17. 2002-12-02
    soldstatus $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,282 · $774/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,548 · $879/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,265/yr (+$105/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $91,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$9,282
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,325
• − Management: −$7,325
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable income: $4,646
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,115
• After-tax cash flow: $14,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Laurel

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #18894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laurel, NY
• City population: 775
• Population (ZIP): 775

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.33%
• Current HPI: 383.8402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,282 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.