45553 Knockeyon Ln · California, MD 20634

$289,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2001 1,656 sqft lot Est $265k · 9% over $90/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this move-in ready 3 bedroom, 3.5 bath Townhouse featuring three finished levels and a functional layout throughout. The main level and upstairs both feature brand new carpet, while the entire home has been freshly painted. The main level also includes a convenient bedroom and a half bath. Upstairs, both bedrooms feature their own private full bathrooms, including the Master Bedroom Suite. The finished basement provides additional living space with a rec room, bonus room, and a full bath — ideal for guests, a home office, workout area, or extra entertaining space. Major updates include a new HVAC system installed in 2025 and a roof with architectural shingles replaced

Key facts

• $90 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $90; HOA covers common area maintenance, pools, and trash; Community amenities include outdoor pool, tennis courts, playground, exercise room, and recreation center

Exterior

• Parking: Two total garage and parking spaces; Driveway with two spaces; Driveway and parking lot access; Lighted parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water; Central A/C (electric); Natural gas available
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Built with vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Permanent foundation; Excellent property condition; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Architectural shingle roof; Permanent foundation; End of row/townhouse structure
• Exterior features: Community in-ground pool (fenced); Community pool; Above grade and below grade other structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Stove; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level; 2 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with gas backup; Natural gas heating fuel; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Traditional floor plan; Galley kitchen layout; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Fully finished basement with interior access
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-7/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in California — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $290k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,123 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45732 Military Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,587 (+3%)	5mo	$289,000	$182	67
45535 Knockeyon Ln	0.03mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,380 (-10%)	17mo	$259,900	$188	62
45529 Knockeyon Ln	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,374 (-11%)	19mo	$250,000	$182	59
45513 Knockeyon Ln	0.07mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,374 (-11%)	19mo	$237,000	$172	58
45615 Longfields Village Dr	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,704 (+11%)	1mo	$286,000	$168	58
45763 Church Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,476 (-4%)	14mo	$245,000	$166	57
45750 Military Ln	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,476 (-4%)	15mo	$255,000	$173	56
22415 Greenview Ct	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,332 (-14%)	6mo	$298,750	$224	48
45761 Military Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,452 (-6%)	20mo	$242,000	$167	48
45289 Woodstown Way	0.65mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,720 (+12%)	2mo	$285,000	$166	40
22438 Greenview Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,328 (-14%)	20mo	$172,000	$130	37
22716 Othello Ln	0.53mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,740 (+13%)	17mo	$260,000	$149	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-47,042
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-41,127
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20634

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,998/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,402

Max offer price $289,799

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $81	+0% $-1	+5% $-83	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-190	-5% $-95	+0% $-1	+5% $94	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $73	base $-1	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23155 Park Place Way California, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,495	$2.40	5d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $289,900 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-05
   listed $289,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,998 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,579 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$581/yr (+$48/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$1,998
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$4,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,199
• After-tax cash flow: $1,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — California

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #5421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 14,212
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 7,088
• Household income: $139,375
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 111.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 31% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.78%
• Current HPI: 244.1447
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+65.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $289,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $289,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,998 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.