39 Pineway Ave · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$595,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1946 0.89 ac lot $293/sqft · at area comps Est $642k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the quaint and serene community of Mastic Beach, this expansive single-family residence offers exceptional space, versatility, and potential on a generous .89-acre parcel. The main level features five well-proportioned bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a comfortable living room, and a separate family room, providing ample room for both everyday living and entertaining. The lower level offers a fully functional basement with extra space and a full bathroom, complemented by a separate entrance, ideal for home office or flexible space. An unfinished attic with its own private entrance presents a unique opportunity for customization and future expansion. Completing this impressive offering is a two-car garage and abundant outdoor space, making this property a rare find with endless possibilities.

Key facts

• 0.89 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1946

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $595k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $407k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (36.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $380k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$102k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($559k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $595k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $380,000 (36.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.68%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $641,688
• List price: $595,000
• Delta: -7.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24 Lonscreek Pl	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,984 (-2%)	2mo	$515,000	$260	72
218 Wavecrest Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (-6%)	4mo	$560,000	$294	71
295 Whittier Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,005 (-1%)	9mo	$610,000	$304	62
188 Meadowmere Ave	0.54mi	6/2.5 (+1)	2,100 (+3%)	23mo	$600,000	$286	43
130 Washington Ave	0.72mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,100 (+3%)	16mo	$520,000	$248	40
290 Cypress Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,808 (-11%)	10mo	$570,000	$315	34
206 Longfellow Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (-14%)	13mo	$560,000	$320	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $256,167
• Equity at exit: $536,023

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $807,840
• Equity at exit: $1,155,954

Cash invested: $166,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax from tax record: −$700 /mo · $8,402/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$798
• Net cashflow: $-1,066

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,150

Max offer price $406,626

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,750
• Closing costs: $17,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	43d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $595,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $595,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $625,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $625,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $625,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $625,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $625,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $625,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $625,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $625,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $625,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $625,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $625,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $625,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $625,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $625,000 Active 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Nestled in the quaint and serene community of Mastic Beach, this expansive single-family residence offers exceptional space, versatility, and potential on a generous .89-acre parcel. The main level features five well-proportioned bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a comfortable living room, and a separate family room, providing ample room for both everyday living and entertaining. The lower level offers a fully functional basement with extra space and a full bathroom, complemented by a separate entrance, ideal for home office or flexible space. An unfinished attic with its own private entrance presents a unique opportunity for customization and future expansion. Completing this impressive offering is a two-car garage and abundant outdoor space, making this property a rare find with endless possibilities.

17. 2015-06-12
    soldstatus $175,000
18. 2015-05-29
    soldstatus $175,000 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This Beautiful Ranch Situated On Nearly One Acre Of Fully Fenced Property Includes 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, Eat In Kitchen, Formal Dining Room And Office. Large Backyard Complete With Deck And Hot Tub Perfect For Entertaining Or Relaxing. Low Taxes Of $4256 With Star Make This One A Steal., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

19. 2015-05-29
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This Beautiful Ranch Situated On Nearly One Acre Of Fully Fenced Property Includes 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, Eat In Kitchen, Formal Dining Room And Office. Large Backyard Complete With Deck And Hot Tub Perfect For Entertaining Or Relaxing. Low Taxes Of $4256 With Star Make This One A Steal., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

20. 2015-01-19
    status Under Contract
21. 2014-10-20
    listed $235,000 New

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This Beautiful Ranch Situated On Nearly One Acre Of Fully Fenced Property Includes 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, Eat In Kitchen, Formal Dining Room And Office. Large Backyard Complete With Deck And Hot Tub Perfect For Entertaining Or Relaxing. Low Taxes Of $4256 With Star Make This One A Steal., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

22. 2014-10-20
    listed $235,000 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This Beautiful Ranch Situated On Nearly One Acre Of Fully Fenced Property Includes 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, Eat In Kitchen, Formal Dining Room And Office. Large Backyard Complete With Deck And Hot Tub Perfect For Entertaining Or Relaxing. Low Taxes Of $4256 With Star Make This One A Steal., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

23. 2000-02-22
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,402 · $700/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,229 · $769/mo
• Expected delta: +$827/yr (+$69/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,329
• − Property taxes: −$8,402
• − Insurance: −$2,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,648
• − Management: −$3,648
• − Depreciation: −$17,309
• Taxable loss: −$23,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,691
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+681.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $625,000 BNYMLS
• 2015-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) $175,000 MLSLI
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-19 Pending — MLSLI
• 2014-10-20 Listed $235,000 MLSLI
• 2014-10-20 Listed $235,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,402 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.