134 Anthony Dr #31 · Lakeville, MN 55044

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 223 Days on market

Built 2022 Poor condition 6,141 sqft lot $72/sqft · 68% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautiful 2022 Friendship Harmon in the highly desired Ardmor Village community. This spacious 3-bed, 2-bath home offers an open and modern layout with tall flat ceilings, a bright kitchen with stainless steel appliances, breakfast bar seating, and plenty of cabinet space. The private primary suite features a full bath with double sinks and a step-in shower. Enjoy the convenience of a separate laundry room (washer & dryer included), central air, updated lighting, and clean, well-kept finishes throughout. Outside you’ll find a two-car concrete driveway, a nice yard, and pet-friendly living. Ardmor Village offers fantastic amenities including a community pool, playgrounds, and on-site management. Lot rent is $850/mo and includes garbage and recycling, with water and sewer billed through the community. This home is move-in ready and located close to shopping, dining, parks, and easy highway access. Don’t miss this great opportunity in Lakeville!

Key facts

• 6,141 sq ft lot
• Built 2022
• Listed 223 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $105,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$326,069) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Farmington Public School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #104 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Meadowview Elementary (math 60% / reading 58%, grade B-, #247 of 857 statewide, top 29%, 627 students, 31% FRL); Robert Boeckman Middle School (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D+, #103 of 258 statewide, top 40%, 878 students, 25% FRL); Farmington High School (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #210 of 471 statewide, top 44%, 2,201 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.71%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,069
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -67.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $52,102
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $136,949
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55044

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 719
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $1,071

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,144	-5% $1,107	+0% $1,071	+5% $1,035	+10% $998
Rent	-10% $891	-5% $981	+0% $1,071	+5% $1,161	+10% $1,251
Rate	-1.0pp $1,124	-0.5pp $1,098	base $1,071	+0.5pp $1,044	+1.0pp $1,016

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8500 210th St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,755	$1.91	0d	1	1.12mi
20048 Heritage Dr Lakeville, MN	2.0	3.0	1650	$2,250	$1.36	18d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 220 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 205 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 202 DOM
15. 2025-11-10
    listed $120,000 Active 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 2022 Friendship Harmon in the highly desired Ardmor Village community. This spacious 3-bed, 2-bath home offers an open and modern layout with tall flat ceilings, a bright kitchen with stainless steel appliances, breakfast bar seating, and plenty of cabinet space. The private primary suite features a full bath with double sinks and a step-in shower. Enjoy the convenience of a separate laundry room (washer & dryer included), central air, updated lighting, and clean, well-kept finishes throughout. Outside you’ll find a two-car concrete driveway, a nice yard, and pet-friendly living. Ardmor Village offers fantastic amenities including a community pool, playgrounds, and on-site management. Lot rent is $850/mo and includes garbage and recycling, with water and sewer billed through the community. This home is move-in ready and located close to shopping, dining, parks, and easy highway access. Don’t miss this great opportunity in Lakeville!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $11,887
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,853
• After-tax cash flow: $9,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant investment is needed to address the poor condition of the exterior, interior, and systems.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Severe weathering and wear
• Major roof — Siding condition suggests underlying issues
• Major flooring — No visible flooring, but overall condition suggests need for replacement
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible walls or paint, but overall condition suggests need for repair
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen, but overall condition suggests need for replacement
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms, but overall condition suggests need for repair
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals, but overall condition suggests need for replacement
• Major windows — No visible windows, but overall condition suggests need for replacement
• Major foundation/structure — No visible foundation/structure, but overall condition suggests need for repair

Value-add opportunities

• Resale exterior siding replacement — Fresh siding would significantly improve curb appeal and home value
• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would address underlying issues and improve home value
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and functionality
• Resale interior wall and paint repair — Fresh walls and paint would improve the home's appearance and functionality
• Resale kitchen replacement — A new kitchen would significantly improve the home's functionality and value
• Resale bathroom renovation — Renovated bathrooms would improve the home's functionality and value
• Resale HVAC/mechanical replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Resale window replacement — New windows would improve energy efficiency and home value
• Resale foundation/structure repair — A repaired foundation would improve the home's structural integrity and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Severe weathering and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Siding condition suggests underlying issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring, but overall condition suggests need for replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible walls or paint, but overall condition suggests need for repair	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible kitchen, but overall condition suggests need for replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No visible bathrooms, but overall condition suggests need for repair	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible HVAC/mechanicals, but overall condition suggests need for replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No visible windows, but overall condition suggests need for replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · No visible foundation/structure, but overall condition suggests need for repair	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale exterior siding replacement — Fresh siding would significantly improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would address underlying issues and improve home value ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale interior wall and paint repair — Fresh walls and paint would improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale kitchen replacement — A new kitchen would significantly improve the home's functionality and value ↑
• Resale bathroom renovation — Renovated bathrooms would improve the home's functionality and value ↑
• Resale HVAC/mechanical replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Resale window replacement — New windows would improve energy efficiency and home value ↑
• Resale foundation/structure repair — A repaired foundation would improve the home's structural integrity and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711820
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,959
• Composite: 43.93/100
• National rank: #2905
• State rank: #104 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lakeville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #711

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeville, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 64,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 64,762
• Household income: $141,551
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 956.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.50%
• Current HPI: 216.0601
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Listed $120,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid