16106 Hatton Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$184,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Managed by MC Property Management; Annual association fee of $450; Community trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 14); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 11 x 10 and 10 x 11); One more first-floor bedroom (approx. 10 x 11); Total of 5 rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric and Gas)
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Kitchen and dining area combined; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $184,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $274,949.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-339 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $179,440 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,949
• List price: $184,990
• Delta: -32.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
338 Parkin Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	2mo	$260,990	$176	84
16063 Tallis Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	4mo	$253,990	$171	82
323 Parkin Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	6mo	$257,990	$174	80
16035 Tallis Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	7mo	$260,990	$176	79
16023 Tallis Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	8mo	$257,990	$174	79
488 Shoreview Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-3%)	6mo	$244,900	$169	78
339 Parkin Ct	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	2mo	$269,990	$161	72
16010 Tallis Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+5%)	8mo	$290,990	$186	71
334 Parkin Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-14%)	1mo	$252,990	$199	62
16055 Tallis Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-14%)	5mo	$249,990	$197	56
16027 Tallis Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-14%)	7mo	$251,990	$199	55
16031 Tallis Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	7mo	$268,990	$160	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-72,041
• Equity at exit: $40,996

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-113,260
• Equity at exit: $23,773

Cash invested: $76,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,124/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,453

Max offer price $225,852

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-149	-5% $-244	+0% $-339	+5% $-434	+10% $-529
Rent	-10% $-499	-5% $-419	+0% $-339	+5% $-259	+10% $-179
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-269	base $-339	+0.5pp $-411	+1.0pp $-483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,737
• Closing costs: $8,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	11d	1	1.31mi
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	23d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,990 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 618-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,990 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,990 Active 32 DOM

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

6. 2026-06-15
   price $184,990 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,540 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,540 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,540 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,540 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,540 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,540 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,540 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,540 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,540 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,540 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    historical
18. 2026-05-15
    listed $210,640 Active 586-char remark
19. 2026-05-12
    price $210,640

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

20. 2026-05-12
    price $210,640

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

21. 2026-05-05
    price $214,990

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

22. 2026-04-28
    price $239,040

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

23. 2026-04-28
    price $239,040

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

24. 2026-04-22
    price $235,490

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

25. 2026-04-20
    price $235,490
26. 2026-04-19
    price $228,990

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

27. 2026-04-07
    price $251,540

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

28. 2026-04-07
    price $251,540

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

29. 2026-04-03
    price $244,240

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

30. 2026-04-02
    listed $244,240 Active
31. 2026-03-31
    listed $240,440 Active

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,401
• − Property taxes: −$4,124
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,999
• Taxable loss: −$8,955
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,149
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a good condition. It is ready for move-in and can be enhanced with minor exterior updates to boost its resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and security.
• Resale Clean the windows — Clean windows can make the home appear more inviting and well-maintained.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and security. ↑
• Resale Clean the windows — Clean windows can make the home appear more inviting and well-maintained. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $184,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $184,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $199,540 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $199,540 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $206,940 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $206,940 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $210,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $210,640 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $210,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $214,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $239,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $239,040 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $235,490 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $235,490 HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $228,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $251,540 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $251,540 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $244,240 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Listed $244,240 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $240,440 Zillow