230 Liberty Blvd · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1969 7,841 sqft lot Est $218k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step-saver ranch convenient to 251 and shopping. Living room with wood burning fireplace and eat-in kitchen There are three bedrooms and a full basement with some finish started. There's an above-ground pool in the fenced backyard with a deck and shed, and a 1.5-car attached garage. Low-maintenance vinyl-sided exterior. Please independently verify all room sizes, schools, and taxes. Equal Housing Opportunity

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Modern appliances
• Additional room

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• ADDITIONAL ROOM
• FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.18 acres; Below-grade finished area present
• Financial info: Not specified
• HOA & community: Not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence (house); Residential property
• Construction: Not specified
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Finished full basement

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.8% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Marquette Elem School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,054 of 2,056 statewide, top 54%, 289 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $165k implies a 223% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.34%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9931 Shore Dr	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,352 (+0%)	5mo	$239,900	$177	80
8817 Wakefield Dr	0.20mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,352 (+0%)	6mo	$230,000	$170	78
9511 Shore Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-2%)	3mo	$215,000	$162	72
428 Pershing Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+6%)	8mo	$150,000	$105	68
506 Marquette Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-11%)	1mo	$197,500	$164	64
308 Gilbert Ter	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,149 (-15%)	1mo	$135,000	$117	60
128 Wilson Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,164 (-14%)	0mo	$166,000	$143	59
8334 Shore Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,422 (+6%)	7mo	$249,900	$176	56
5165 Browns Beach Rd	0.74mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,340 (-1%)	2mo	$261,000	$195	55
8217 Ravere St	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (+6%)	6mo	$185,000	$130	52
216 Superior Ave	0.45mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,164 (-14%)	4mo	$115,000	$99	44
8315 Ravere St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,517 (+12%)	7mo	$195,000	$129	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,875
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $25,975
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,776 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,314/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,321

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $453	-5% $406	+0% $359	+5% $313	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $219	-5% $289	+0% $359	+5% $430	+10% $500
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $401	base $359	+0.5pp $317	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1028 Minns Dr Unit 1028-D Machesney Park, IL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,850	$1.51	22d	1	1.14mi
1051 Minns Dr Unit 1051-3 Machesney Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,700	$1.41	14d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $165,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $165,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,314 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,530 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,216/yr (+$101/mo · 92.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,314
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,720
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$413
• After-tax cash flow: $3,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+108.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $165,000 NWIAR
• 2021-11-16 Sold (MLS) $51,111 NWIAR
• 2021-11-16 Sold (MLS) $51,111 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-12 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-06 Listed $45,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-04 Listed $45,500 NWIAR
• 2000-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 1994-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records
• 1994-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records
• 1994-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 1989-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,314 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.