100 Heron Bay Rd · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$498,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 1969 Good condition 1.10 ac lot Est $365k · 36% over $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Classic Pocono home, with gambrel roofs, floor to ceiling glass windows with a winter lake view. Real stone fireplace, tongue and grove interior, hardwood floors, built in storage/shelves, this is a quality custom home! It sits on a double lot with matching garage, impeccably maintained, mostly finished basement with large Sauna room. Mature landscaping on a quiet road with central location to Hemlock Amenities.

Key facts

• Real stone fireplace
• Built in storage
• Gambrel roofs

Tags

• GAMBREL ROOFS
• FLOOR TO CEILING GLASS WINDOWS
• REAL STONE FIREPLACE
• TONGUE AND GROVE INTERIOR
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BUILT IN STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Take Hemlock Farms Road, turn left on Forest Drive, turn right on Heron Bay to #100
• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $2,995 (approximately $249.58/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family residential property in the Hemlock Farms subdivision; 1.1 acre lot; Above-grade finished area and additional finished space below grade
• Construction: Below-grade finished area (basement) exists
• Exterior features: Located on a community lake; Additional parcel included (Lot 16 house and Lot 15 garage)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Finished full basement with storage space; Total of 6 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $498k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-456 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $432k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $410k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $410k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 6.9% in Hemlock Farms — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wallenpaupack South El Sch (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 255 students, 72% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 644 students, 59% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Hs (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #48 of 437 statewide, top 11%, 990 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 44% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($483k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $409,574 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $365,472
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 Widgeon Ct	0.21mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,911 (-2%)	6mo	$730,000	$382	73
107 Long Spur Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,010 (+3%)	6mo	$430,000	$214	65
806 Wren Ct	0.21mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,130 (+10%)	4mo	$228,000	$107	64
104 Summer Hill Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,064 (+6%)	1mo	$330,000	$160	60
803 Fetlock Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,837 (-6%)	7mo	$290,000	$158	59
107 Rimrock Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+3%)	5mo	$250,000	$125	56
125 Broadmoor Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,152 (+11%)	5mo	$335,000	$156	50
118 Ledgeway Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,716 (-12%)	8mo	$399,999	$233	49
801 Saddlebrook Spur Spur	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (-11%)	4mo	$550,500	$319	48
106 Fetlock Dr	0.38mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,700 (-13%)	7mo	$255,000	$150	46
119 Ridgeway Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,662 (-14%)	1mo	$549,000	$330	46
140 Long Ridge Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,153 (+11%)	11mo	$405,000	$188	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $242,401
• Equity at exit: $448,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $737,095
• Equity at exit: $967,504

Cash invested: $139,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,612
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$622 /mo · $7,470/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$860
• Net cashflow: $-456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,673

Max offer price $432,026

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-112	-5% $-284	+0% $-456	+5% $-628	+10% $-800
Rent	-10% $-779	-5% $-618	+0% $-456	+5% $-294	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-329	base $-456	+0.5pp $-585	+1.0pp $-716

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,500
• Closing costs: $14,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Pommel Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1691	$4,400	$2.60	3d	1	0.37mi
402 Canoe Brook Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2055	$3,500	$1.70	0d	1	0.96mi
106 Corral Ln Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2150	$4,000	$1.86	5d	1	1.13mi
113 Portage Ln Milford, PA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	0d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $498,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $498,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $498,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $498,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $498,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $498,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $498,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $498,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $498,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $498,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $498,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $498,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $498,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $498,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $498,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    status Active
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $498,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,896
• − Property taxes: −$7,470
• − Insurance: −$2,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,932
• − Management: −$3,932
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$14,487
• Taxable loss: −$14,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,374
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming Pocono home is in good condition with a good rehab level, featuring a well-maintained exterior, hardwood floors, and large windows with a winter lake view. It has potential for further updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality
• Resale Update kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the space and adds value
• Resale Install new flooring — Enhances the living space and adds value
• Resale Update bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale Update kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Resale Install new flooring — Enhances the living space and adds value ↑
• Resale Update bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $498,000 PWMLS