12091 NE Keeney Rd · Elgin, OK 73538

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,756 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2012 1.00 ac lot Est $276k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This open concept floor plan has a spacious kitchen with a large breakfast bar with granite countertops in the kitchen, stainless appliances, custom built alder cabinetry and a formal dining room or private office. The attractive home is located on a 1 acre lot with nice views of the mountains. Extras include a water softener with reverse osmosis drinking system and storm cellar built into garage floor.

Key facts

• Water softener
• Storm shelter
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• REVERSE OSMOSIS SYSTEM
• WATER SOFTENER
• STORM SHELTER
• VERSATILE OFFICE SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3 covered spaces; 3-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway; Has open parking
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Updated / remodeled; R-1 single family zoning; Located on a paved, public-maintained city street; Approximately 1 acre lot
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built/updated (updated/remodeled noted)
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Porch; Wood fencing; Spa / hot tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s) noted (bedroom level not specified)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Therapeutic whirlpool (accessibility feature)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Pantry; Granite counters; Double pane windows; Window coverings; Security system; Smoke detectors; Therapeutic whirlpool
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-359 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#17 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Elgin (rural): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #38 of 270 in OK (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elgin Es (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 945 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Ms (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #49 of 345 statewide, top 15%, 791 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Hs (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #42 of 447 statewide, top 10%, 771 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,076 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.30%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,692
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Blue Mdw	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-3%)	1mo	$255,000	$150	78
16 Summerwood Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+2%)	1mo	$260,000	$144	78
18 NE Summerwood Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-3%)	3mo	$255,000	$150	75
1110 Apple Creek Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+8%)	2mo	$299,000	$157	71
1325 NE Saddle Rock Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+2%)	3mo	$267,000	$148	66
1206 Hershel Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-15%)	0mo	$240,000	$160	65
1404 Limestone Way	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-3%)	2mo	$267,000	$157	64
1420 Limestone Way	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+2%)	1mo	$290,000	$161	64
1414 Limestone Way	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,805 (+3%)	1mo	$275,000	$152	64
1511 NE Stonehouse Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+2%)	4mo	$281,000	$156	60
508 2nd St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-3%)	2mo	$295,000	$174	56
1430 Limestone Way	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,564 (-11%)	0mo	$245,000	$157	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $135,007
• Equity at exit: $261,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $415,470
• Equity at exit: $563,212

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73538

• Home prices YoY: 22.9%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,105/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,405

Max offer price $226,533

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-195	-5% $-277	+0% $-359	+5% $-441	+10% $-523
Rent	-10% $-513	-5% $-436	+0% $-359	+5% $-282	+10% $-205
Rate	-1.0pp $-213	-0.5pp $-285	base $-359	+0.5pp $-434	+1.0pp $-510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1205 Alma Dr Elgin, OK	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	13d	1	0.23mi
107 Oak St Elgin, OK	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,295	$1.00	13d	1	0.39mi
1534 Stonehouse Dr Elgin, OK	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,975	$1.16	25d	1	0.57mi
1517 Stonehouse Dr Elgin, OK	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,700	$1.09	23d	1	0.60mi
313 Marilyn Glover Dr Elgin, OK	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	25d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 413-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $289,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,105 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,105 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$3,105
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$9,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,295
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin
• NCES district ID: 4010710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,900
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6432
• State rank: #38 of 270 in OK

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #5411

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 7,128
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 7,128
• Household income: $91,324
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 45.70%
• Current HPI: 245.4249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+158.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $289,900 LBRMLS
• 2022-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-18 Sold (MLS) $260,000 LBRMLS
• 2022-05-13 Listed $265,000 LBRMLS
• 2019-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-26 Sold (MLS) $205,000 LBRMLS
• 2019-05-16 Listed $210,000 LBRMLS
• 2016-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $192,500 Public Records
• 2016-07-28 Sold (MLS) $192,500 LBRMLS
• 2016-06-14 Listed $195,000 LBRMLS
• 2012-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $184,500 Public Records
• 2012-11-14 Sold (MLS) $184,400 LBRMLS
• 2012-07-06 Listed $187,900 LBRMLS
• 2009-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 2007-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,105 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.