5194 Clay Whaley Rd · St. Cloud, FL 34772

$301,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · Land · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 3,000 sqft lot $216/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to the light & bright Meridian. This new two-story home is host to an inviting open-concept layout on the first floor, blending a modern kitchen, elegant dining room and comfortable living room for a seamless and modern lifestyle. All three bedrooms are located on the second level to maximize comfort and privacy, including a lavish owner’s suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-car rear garage completes the home. Every home comes with Lennar’s Everything’s Included® promise, which includes new appliances as well as quartz countertops, and more in the price of your home. The Glades at Crossprairie is one of the most antici

Key facts

• Elegant dining room
• Full bathroom
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• ELEGANT DINING ROOM
• COMFORTABLE LIVING ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $302k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neptune Elementary School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 993 students, 46% FRL); St. Cloud High School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 2,264 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 868 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $252,776 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-69,730
• Equity at exit: $44,955

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-92,002
• Equity at exit: $26,068

Cash invested: $84,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34772

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 868
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,528 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,581
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,522/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$216
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,911

Max offer price $257,703

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,375
• Closing costs: $9,045
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5176 Clay Whaley Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,350	$1.41	22d	1	0.03mi
5174 Clay Whaley Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,290	$1.38	24d	1	0.03mi
5172 Clay Whaley Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1823	$2,240	$1.23	13d	1	0.04mi
5191 Loyalty Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,250	$1.26	24d	1	0.05mi
5195 Loyalty Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2071	$2,750	$1.33	24d	1	0.05mi
5151 Loyalty Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2071	$2,750	$1.33	24d	1	0.08mi
5115 Loyalty Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2071	$2,490	$1.20	15d	1	0.12mi
5107 Loyalty Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2071	$2,500	$1.21	22d	1	0.13mi
5100 Clay Whaley Rd Unit 5100 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1823	$2,250	$1.23	24d	1	0.13mi
5134 Arrowfeather Ct Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,350	$1.29	17d	1	0.21mi
5134 Arrowfeather Ct Unit A St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,350	$1.29	16d	1	0.21mi
5153 Natalia Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2175	$2,900	$1.33	24d	1	0.22mi
4377 Vibernum Ave Unit A St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,400	$1.32	24d	1	0.27mi
5161 Marlberry Ct Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2071	$2,500	$1.21	3d	1	0.27mi
4371 Vibernum Ave Unit A St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,400	$1.32	24d	1	0.27mi
4512 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2114	$2,550	$1.21	24d	1	1.06mi
4632 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,500	$1.19	24d	1	1.11mi
4658 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2114	$2,500	$1.18	17d	1	1.14mi
4704 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,600	$1.29	11d	1	1.23mi
4724 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2114	$2,550	$1.21	24d	1	1.26mi
4651 Sidesaddle Trl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,195	$1.29	17d	1	1.26mi
4536 Burrowing Owl Loop Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1808	$2,650	$1.47	24d	1	1.31mi
4501 Burrowing Owl Loop Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,200	$1.41	17d	1	1.31mi
4329 Eagle Trail Bnd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,100	$1.35	22d	1	1.38mi
4469 Eagle Trail Bnd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,200	$1.40	24d	1	1.41mi
4367 Ranch House Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,050	$1.31	24d	1	1.42mi
4358 Restful Fallow Cv Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,300	$1.47	24d	1	1.43mi
4348 Ranch House Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1808	$2,200	$1.22	24d	1	1.44mi
4346 Restful Fallow Cv Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,300	$1.47	24d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $216 · $2,592/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $301,500
3. 2026-04-16
   listed $300,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,889
• − Property taxes: −$4,522
• − Insurance: −$1,508
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,427
• − Management: −$2,427
• − HOA: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$8,771
• Taxable loss: −$8,802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,112
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Cloud, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,390
• Household income: $97,868
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 443.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 2% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 36% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.55%
• Current HPI: 274.6517
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $301,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $300,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid