2904 NE 11th Ter · Gainesville, FL 32609

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 351 Days on market

Built 1961 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

( SUPER INVESTOR ALERT ) Rent is 1500 mth. Investor Alert 3 Bedroom and 1 bathroom Home. . Thank You

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1961

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,932/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1037% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 351 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $179k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 351 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.94%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,475
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $25,070
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32609

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,681/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 351 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 350 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 349 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 348 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $179,000 Active 345 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,000 Active 344 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,000 Active 343 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,000 Active 342 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,000 Active 341 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 340 DOM
11. 2025-09-19
    price $179,000 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    ( SUPER INVESTOR ALERT ) Rent is 1500 mth. Investor Alert 3 Bedroom and 1 bathroom Home. . Thank You

12. 2025-08-14
    price $189,000 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    ( SUPER INVESTOR ALERT ) Rent is 1500 mth. Investor Alert 3 Bedroom and 1 bathroom Home. . Thank You

13. 2025-06-24
    listed $199,000 Active 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    ( SUPER INVESTOR ALERT ) Rent is 1500 mth. Investor Alert 3 Bedroom and 1 bathroom Home. . Thank You

14. 2006-11-03
    soldstatus $85,000
15. 2006-10-27
    soldstatus $85,000 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Great home for investors or first time home buyer excellent condition newer, flooring, complete kitchen, newer heating unit

16. 2006-08-22
    soldstatus $60,000
17. 2006-08-18
    listed $85,000 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Great home for investors or first time home buyer excellent condition newer, flooring, complete kitchen, newer heating unit

18. 1995-12-29
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,681 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,681 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,681
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $668
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$160
• After-tax cash flow: $3,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,752
• Household income: $49,406
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1037.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.25%
• Current HPI: 304.1951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+347.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-27 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-18 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,681 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.