EDINBURG Plan · Ridge Manor, FL 33523

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,855 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1855 sqft

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 105 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $289,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home; Listed as Active
• Construction: New construction (Plan EDINBURG)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1855 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: EDINBURG (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $322,770.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-631 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#736 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 737 students, 73% FRL); D. S. Parrott Middle School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 835 students, 67% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hernando average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,500 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.38%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,770
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35070 Smoketree Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,836 (-1%)	12mo	$275,000	$150	86
6037 Beechwood Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,855 (0%)	9mo	$303,490	$164	86
34507 Cedarfield Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (-4%)	2mo	$242,500	$135	79
5465 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,725 (-7%)	2mo	$310,000	$180	77
35046 Smoketree Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,997 (+8%)	7mo	$277,000	$139	76
6010 Sundown Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,731 (-7%)	4mo	$332,500	$192	75
34448 Cedarfield Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,939 (+4%)	3mo	$337,000	$174	74
6023 Sundown Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,747 (-6%)	6mo	$330,000	$189	69
5402 Boxtree Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,991 (+7%)	7mo	$180,000	$90	68
6022 Sundown Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	2,044 (+10%)	9mo	$312,490	$153	65
6103 Fairway Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-11%)	10mo	$337,500	$204	45
5592 Fairway Dr	0.57mi	3/3.0	2,053 (+11%)	11mo	$370,000	$180	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $135,641
• Equity at exit: $290,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $431,097
• Equity at exit: $627,071

Cash invested: $90,376 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,693
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$403 /mo · $4,842/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,824

Max offer price $231,486

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-408	-5% $-519	+0% $-631	+5% $-742	+10% $-854
Rent	-10% $-791	-5% $-711	+0% $-631	+5% $-551	+10% $-471
Rate	-1.0pp $-468	-0.5pp $-549	base $-631	+0.5pp $-714	+1.0pp $-800

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,692
• Closing costs: $9,683
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34438 Cedarfield Dr Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1941	$2,025	$1.04	12d	1	0.31mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,990 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,990 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,990 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,990 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,080
• − Property taxes: −$4,842
• − Insurance: −$1,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$9,390
• Taxable loss: −$13,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,243
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ridge Manor

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #15912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridge Manor, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B