650 The Esplanade · Southold, NY 11971

$1,249,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 1998 0.92 ac lot Est $1242k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious Ranch Set An Acre In Angel Shores Deeded Beach Community. Large Open Living Room And Dining Room. Den W/ Fireplace. Master Suite With Sitting Room/Office And Bath. Set On An Acre Of Lushly Landscaped Property. Borders Preserve. Bay Beach Just Down The Road.

Key facts

• Sugar-sand beach
• Ample space for pool
• 0.92 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE BAYFRONT COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE ASSOCIATION ACCESS
• SUGAR-SAND BEACH
• LANDSCAPED ULTRA-PRIVATE LOT
• PROTECTED PRESERVE LAND
• AMPLE SPACE FOR POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.20M (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $37k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.23M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $649k; list at $1.25M implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,201,867 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,242,000
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9875 Main Bayview Rd	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (-13%)	7mo	$950,000	$475	41
265 Cedar Point Dr E	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,000 (-13%)	20mo	$1,450,000	$725	41
1750 Water Ter	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (-13%)	23mo	$1,080,000	$540	40
75 Reydon Dr	0.62mi	3/3.0	2,492 (+8%)	22mo	$999,999	$401	36
2120 Brigantine Dr	0.68mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,000 (-13%)	5mo	$1,150,000	$575	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-108,529
• Equity at exit: $186,230

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $25,816
• Equity at exit: $107,991

Cash invested: $349,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,550
• Tax from tax record: −$948 /mo · $11,372/yr
• Insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,524
• Net cashflow: $1,477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,149

Max offer price $1,249,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,184	-5% $1,830	+0% $1,477	+5% $1,123	+10% $770
Rent	-10% $527	-5% $1,002	+0% $1,477	+5% $1,952	+10% $2,426
Rate	-1.0pp $2,106	-0.5pp $1,794	base $1,477	+0.5pp $1,153	+1.0pp $824

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $312,250
• Closing costs: $37,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1265 Brigantine Dr Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$9,000	$5.14	44d	1	0.86mi
215 Northfield Ln Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	2300	$13,000	$5.65	18d	1	1.14mi
1854 N Bayview Rd Southold, NY	2.0	2.5	1750	$15,000	$8.57	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $1,249,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-04-30
    listed $1,249,000 Active
12. 2017-03-20
    historical
13. 2017-03-18
    price $799,000
14. 2016-09-16
    listed $789,000 New
15. 2013-07-29
    soldstatus $649,000
16. 2013-07-12
    soldstatus $649,000 Closed 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Spacious Ranch Set An Acre In Angel Shores Deeded Beach Community. Large Open Living Room And Dining Room. Den W/ Fireplace. Master Suite With Sitting Room/Office And Bath. Set On An Acre Of Lushly Landscaped Property. Borders Preserve. Bay Beach Just Down The Road.

17. 2013-07-12
    soldstatus $649,000

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Spacious Ranch Set An Acre In Angel Shores Deeded Beach Community. Large Open Living Room And Dining Room. Den W/ Fireplace. Master Suite With Sitting Room/Office And Bath. Set On An Acre Of Lushly Landscaped Property. Borders Preserve. Bay Beach Just Down The Road.

18. 2013-05-22
    status Under Contract 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Spacious Ranch Set An Acre In Angel Shores Deeded Beach Community. Large Open Living Room And Dining Room. Den W/ Fireplace. Master Suite With Sitting Room/Office And Bath. Set On An Acre Of Lushly Landscaped Property. Borders Preserve. Bay Beach Just Down The Road.

19. 2013-05-03
    listed $649,000 New 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Spacious Ranch Set An Acre In Angel Shores Deeded Beach Community. Large Open Living Room And Dining Room. Den W/ Fireplace. Master Suite With Sitting Room/Office And Bath. Set On An Acre Of Lushly Landscaped Property. Borders Preserve. Bay Beach Just Down The Road.

20. 2013-05-03
    listed $649,000

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Spacious Ranch Set An Acre In Angel Shores Deeded Beach Community. Large Open Living Room And Dining Room. Den W/ Fireplace. Master Suite With Sitting Room/Office And Bath. Set On An Acre Of Lushly Landscaped Property. Borders Preserve. Bay Beach Just Down The Road.

21. 1998-08-03
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,372 · $948/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $16,240 · $1,353/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,868/yr (+$406/mo · 42.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$69,963
• − Property taxes: −$11,372
• − Insurance: −$6,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,538
• − Management: −$11,538
• − Depreciation: −$36,335
• Taxable loss: −$2,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$664
• After-tax cash flow: $18,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1035.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $1,249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-18 Price Changed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-16 Listed $789,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $649,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-12 Sold (MLS) $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-12 Sold (MLS) $649,000 MLSLI
• 2013-05-22 Pending — MLSLI
• 2013-05-03 Listed $649,000 MLSLI
• 2013-05-03 Listed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,372 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.