1450 W Kaibab Ln #171 · Flagstaff, AZ 86001

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1992 Average condition $106/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.6

Listing remarks

Don't miss this opportunity to own an affordable home in Flagstaff! This cozy 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers an inviting open living space, a functional kitchen, and a comfortable primary suite--perfect for everyday living. Located in the Summit Pines Community Mobile Home Park, buyers must apply and be approved by the park prior to occupancy. Lot rent price is subject to market pricing set by summit pines.

Key facts

• Built 1992
• Listed 52 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Weitzel'S Puente De Hozho Bilingual Magnet School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #505 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 438 students, 42% FRL); Mount Elden Middle School (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #134 of 218 statewide, top 63%, 757 students, 51% FRL); Flagstaff High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #154 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,620 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.36%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $435,580
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -65.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1450 W Kaibab Ln #72	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-4%)	4mo	$124,000	$92	86
1667 W Shellie Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,467 (+5%)	1mo	$400,000	$273	79
1790 W Tanner Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	1mo	$332,000	$247	77
1675 W Sherrie Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-7%)	3mo	$410,000	$316	72
1758 W Sherrie Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-7%)	1mo	$420,000	$324	72
1671 W Shellie Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	1mo	$455,000	$290	67
1248 S Chattanooga St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-7%)	1mo	$470,000	$363	66
2300 W Rio Grande Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-1%)	6mo	$457,500	$332	61
2184 W Reading Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-5%)	4mo	$415,000	$313	58
2401 W Adirondack Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	5mo	$460,000	$342	54
2321 W Adirondack Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	1mo	$467,000	$309	54
2348 W Rio Grande Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	5mo	$451,000	$298	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,043
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $25,103
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $435,000 ($293/sqft)
• Median days on market: 22 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 86001

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $605	-5% $554	+0% $502	+5% $451	+10% $399
Rent	-10% $342	-5% $422	+0% $502	+5% $582	+10% $662
Rate	-1.0pp $577	-0.5pp $540	base $502	+0.5pp $464	+1.0pp $424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1580 S Plaza Way Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,455	$2.81	93d	12	0.40mi
700 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$1,735	$2.57	93d	1	0.50mi
923 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,304	$2.63	93d	36	0.61mi
1385 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	906	$1,725	$1.90	93d	3	0.65mi
1000 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	947	$1,925	$2.03	93d	1	0.66mi
2141 S Linmar Ct Flagstaff, AZ	3.0	2.0	1727	$2,500	$1.45	93d	1	0.66mi
800 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	847	$3,535	$4.17	93d	32	0.78mi
927 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	958	$2,806	$2.93	93d	11	0.81mi
306 S Humphreys St Flagstaff, AZ	4.0	2.0	1500	$3,595	$2.40	93d	1	0.93mi
2761 W Pico del Monte Cir Flagstaff, AZ	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,125	$1.95	93d	1	1.19mi
600 W University Heights Dr N Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	766	$2,254	$2.94	93d	4	1.28mi
2701 S Woody Mountain Rd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$3,110	$2.88	93d	77	1.35mi
323 N Leroux St Unit A Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	93d	1	1.39mi
108 E Paseo del Rio Flagstaff, AZ	4.0	4.0	1600	$3,600	$2.25	93d	1	1.39mi
601 E Piccadilly Dr Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.5	1072	$3,192	$2.98	93d	24	1.48mi
2292 S Alvan Clark Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$1,701	$1.74	93d	12	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association with a playground

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity availableNatural gas available
• Home design: Double wide manufactured homeCrawl space
• Construction: Year built (owner reported)
• Exterior features: Paved road accessPrivately maintained roadLevel lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heatingCeiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Gas rangeAluminum-framed windows

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
19. 2026-04-29
    listed $149,000 Active 425-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $3,936
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$945
• After-tax cash flow: $5,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $35,000–$63,000 screening

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Flagstaff offers a cozy and functional living space, but requires some updates to its interior and minor repairs to its systems.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen backsplash — tiled backsplash in need of cleaning
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures in need of cleaning
• Minor interior walls — light blue walls with some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint can significantly improve the home's appearance ↑
• Both update kitchen backsplash — a fresh backsplash can enhance the kitchen's appeal ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — newer fixtures can improve the home's functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Eva Marshall Elementary School F AZ #600/1,109 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Mount Elden Middle School F AZ #134/218 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Flagstaff High School F AZ #154/381 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 150,645 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,312
• Household income: $64,626
• Rent vs Own: 63.2% rent · 36.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 15% Native American 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.37%
• Current HPI: 393.2551
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association with a playground

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity availableNatural gas available
• Home design: Double wide manufactured homeCrawl space
• Construction: Year built (owner reported)
• Exterior features: Paved road accessPrivately maintained roadLevel lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heatingCeiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Gas rangeAluminum-framed windows

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $149,000 NAZMLS