2121 E Avenue I Spc 81 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1987 Est $183k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Bell Air Estates and a mobile home that's ready to be made into your own. This mobile home has 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. You'll find a living room and dining area with plenty of natural lighting and space to entertain. The kitchen has lots of cabinets for storage and counter space for cooking. The refrigerator and separate freezer are included. There is a secondary living room with a fireplace that is very cozy. All bedrooms have ceiling fans, plus the primary bedroom has a private bathroom. The primary bathroom has a large soaking tub. The indoor laundry room includes the washer and dryer and has access to the 2 car covered car port.

Key facts

• Natural lighting
• Separate freezer
• Lots of cabinets

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHTING
• LOTS OF CABINETS
• SEPARATE FREEZER
• SECONDARY LIVING ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• CEILING FANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Space/label numbers and serial numbers on file; Sign on property
• HOA & community: Park name: Bell Air Estates; Park features include tennis court and clubhouse/rec room; Park deposit: $1,000; Deposit: $3,000; Age restrictions: All ages; Manager: Kimberly (phone: [phone])

Exterior

• Parking: New space rent: contact park for details
• Utilities: Cable TV available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home; Single-level (manufactured home); Located in space 81 of Bell Air Estates; Manufactured December 15, 1987; Model: Bayshore by Paramount; Skirted
• Construction: Composition shingle roof; Length approximately 66 ft; Width approximately 14 ft
• Exterior features: Tennis court (park amenity); Clubhouse/rec room (park amenity)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher (not working); Gas range; Gas oven; Refrigerator; Freezer; Garbage disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (refrigeration) - noted as broken
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Awning
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Eastside Union Elementary (suburban): math 15% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,226 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,020/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2494% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.81%
• DSCR: 3.48
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2121 E Avenue I Spc 81	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,848 (0%)	0mo	$115,000	$62	100
45465 25th St E #72	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-3%)	2mo	$201,000	$112	80
2121 E I Ave #47	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,932 (+4%)	12mo	$192,000	$99	78
2550 E Avenue I Spc 123	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (0%)	0mo	$149,000	$81	73
2550 E Avenue I Spc 141	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-4%)	8mo	$164,000	$92	66
1501 E Avenue I #148	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,848 (0%)	2mo	$198,400	$107	65
2121 E Avenue I #12	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (-12%)	14mo	$175,000	$107	64
2550 E Avenue I #55	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-9%)	4mo	$13,000	$8	60
2545 E Avenue I #96	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (-4%)	16mo	$91,000	$51	56
2550 E Ave I #40	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (-10%)	9mo	$120,000	$72	49
1501 E I Ave #125	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-12%)	11mo	$175,000	$108	41
1501 E Avenue I #138	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (-13%)	11mo	$199,000	$124	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $74,950
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $165,938
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $610/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $1,628

Break-even live

Break-even rent $960

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45465 25th St E Spc 10 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$825	$0.49	3d	1	0.34mi
2634 Avoca St Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	1722	$3,200	$1.86	1d	1	0.58mi
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$3,100	$2.38	1d	1	0.63mi
1734 Lightcap St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,700	$1.84	1d	1	0.70mi
44707 Cerisa St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1714	$3,000	$1.75	10d	1	0.84mi
2141 E Nugent St Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	2260	$3,200	$1.42	19d	1	0.86mi
44709 26th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,300	$1.75	18d	1	0.88mi
44559 Aspen St Lancaster, CA	4.0	4.0	2375	$3,495	$1.47	5d	1	0.90mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,600	$1.82	15d	1	1.15mi
2624 Via Verona Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.5	1563	$2,900	$1.86	1d	1	1.17mi
1253 Morven St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,995	$1.65	15d	1	1.24mi
2500 Topaz Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1274	$2,800	$2.20	24d	1	1.28mi
3344 E Avenue H14 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	2032	$3,200	$1.57	3d	1	1.28mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,895	$2.30	4d	1	1.32mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$3,000	$2.38	22d	1	1.32mi
2739 Garnet Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.5	2548	$3,100	$1.22	1d	1	1.47mi
44908 Logue Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,495	$1.69	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   status Active
3. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-25
   listed $125,000 Active
5. 2020-10-20
   historical
6. 2020-08-15
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $610 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$340/yr (+$28/mo · 55.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$610
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,900
• − Management: −$2,900
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $18,574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,458
• After-tax cash flow: $15,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0611910
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,840
• Composite: 21.43/100
• National rank: #13636
• State rank: #1226 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $125,000 AVMLS
• 2020-10-20 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2020-08-15 Listed $75,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $610 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.