11015 44th Ave E · Memphis, FL 34221

$324,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · Land · 133 Days on market

Built 2026 6,864 sqft lot $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! REDTAG SALE! Receive up to $20,000 towards closing costs, $5,000 towards upgrades and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through Sunday, April 26th. Self-guided tour available on this quick move-in home every day from 7am-9pm. Stop by to tour on your own time. The Freeport II is a modern single-story floor plan designed with both style and convenience in mind. Offering 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home provides the perfect balance of space and functionality for families of all sizes. Its open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting space that’s ideal for gatherings or everyday living. The pri

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Lease restrictions apply; Unfurnished; Permit number COBLD2508-2938; Builder license CBC039052; Living area approx. 1,498 (appraiser source); total building area approx. 1,900; Lot about 0.15 acre (landscaped) and 0 to <1/4 acre noted; Direction faces: East
• Financial info: Other annual assessment listed
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Access Management; Monthly HOA approximately $18.67 ($56 quarterly association fee listed); HOA amenities include clubhouse, pool, and maintenance; Association approval required; Community features: clubhouse, deed restrictions, reclaimed water irrigation, pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 20 x 20); Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Fire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction (completed); Faces east; Projected completion March 20, 2026
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (Freeport II model)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Landscaped yard; Sidewalks; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Fire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room and laundry closet; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $247,476 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-72,346
• Equity at exit: $48,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-107,283
• Equity at exit: $28,014

Cash invested: $90,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,605/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,725

Max offer price $289,120

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14	-5% $-106	+0% $-197	+5% $-289	+10% $-381
Rent	-10% $-393	-5% $-295	+0% $-197	+5% $-100	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-115	base $-197	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,000
• Closing costs: $9,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11019 Bud Rhoden Rd Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,589	$1.59	3d	1	0.47mi
5511 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	24d	1	0.94mi
6011 Whetstone Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1382	$2,000	$1.45	4d	1	1.15mi
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,342	$2.23	24d	99	1.15mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	22d	1	1.15mi
5924 Whetstone Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	20d	1	1.18mi
11787 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	22d	1	1.19mi
11779 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,200	$1.58	24d	1	1.19mi
11820 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1382	$2,100	$1.52	16d	1	1.23mi
11720 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	24d	1	1.24mi
11946 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1570	$1,995	$1.27	16d	1	1.26mi
11946 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1570	$1,995	$1.27	12d	1	1.26mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	24d	1	1.33mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,405	$2.37	4d	50	1.36mi
11331 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,090	$1.25	12d	1	1.38mi
9204 34th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	12d	1	1.38mi
11332 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,300	$1.38	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $324,000
3. 2026-04-10
   price $327,000
4. 2026-03-25
   price $329,000
5. 2026-03-18
   price $332,000
6. 2026-03-12
   price $334,000
7. 2026-03-05
   price $337,000
8. 2026-02-20
   price $339,000
9. 2026-02-10
   price $341,990
10. 2026-01-27
    price $344,000
11. 2025-12-08
    listed $346,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,605 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,605 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,149
• − Property taxes: −$3,605
• − Insurance: −$1,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,376
• − Management: −$2,376
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$9,425
• Taxable loss: −$8,070
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,937
• After-tax cash flow: $-433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $324,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $327,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $329,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $332,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $334,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $337,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $339,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $341,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $344,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Listed $346,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+25.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,605 · +25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.