2048 Duke St · Kapp Heights, PA 17857

$59,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Other · 17 Days on market

Built 2005 9,000 sqft lot ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on Market!! Well-maintained mobile home situated on a private lot with public water and sewer--no lot rent. This functional layout offers a spacious living room, eat-in kitchen, primary bedroom with nearby baths, additional bedroom, and convenient laundry area. Affordable homeownership with privacy, utility access, and a practical floor plan.

Key facts

• Private lot
• Public sewer
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($991 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,241 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Shikellamy SD (town): math 33% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #362 of 539 in PA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $60k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $59,001 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.49%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $13,886
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $42,510
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17857

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $522

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   status Active
3. 2026-02-12
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-05
   listed $59,900 Active
5. 2025-10-08
   historical
6. 2025-08-19
   listed $64,999 Active
7. 2019-08-19
   soldstatus $20,000
8. 2019-08-13
   soldstatus $20,000
9. 2019-06-01
   listed $20,000
10. 2018-05-23
    listed $20,000
11. 2016-03-08
    listed $23,500
12. 2011-07-15
    soldstatus $112,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$33/yr (+$3/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$951
• − Management: −$951
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $3,708
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$890
• After-tax cash flow: $3,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shikellamy SD
• NCES district ID: 4221540
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $41,227
• Composite: 33.6/100
• National rank: #5415
• State rank: #362 of 539 in PA

Livability — Kapp Heights

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1241
• US rank: #14894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,682

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: French 4% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.84%
• Current HPI: 191.4259
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-46.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — LCAR
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — LCAR
• 2026-02-12 Pending — LCAR
• 2026-02-05 Listed $59,900 LCAR
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $64,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-13 Sold (MLS) $20,000 CSVBR
• 2019-06-01 Listed $20,000 CSVBR
• 2018-05-23 Listed $20,000 CSVBR
• 2016-03-08 Listed $23,500 CSVBR
• 2011-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $112,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $881 · +230.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.