204 W Eaton Ave · Graford, TX 76449

$239,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,108 sqft · Manufactured public records · 185 Days on market

Built 2019 0.42 ac lot $113/sqft · 33% above area Est $180k · 33% over ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this beautiful, spacious 4 bed 2 bath home on a nice .42 acre corner lot. The home is fairly new so has all the modern features you're looking for- open concept living, kitchen and dining area, large master bedroom with an ensuite bathroom and large walk in closet, split bedroom concept with the other 3 bedrooms on the other end of the home, designated pantry space as well as designated laundry room and much more. The large backyard is a treat on it's own, huge covered patio, hot tub, covered outdoor kitchen area with a bar, a slabbed fire pit area, a semi inground pool with a covered bar and pool deck. What a dream for entertaining family and friends! The backyard is also surrounded by a tall metal privacy fence. This property is ready and waiting for you!

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Hot tub
• Covered patio

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• DESIGNATED PANTRY SPACE
• DESIGNATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• HOT TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $958 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 1.3% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 465 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.17%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,311
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: 32.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $22,276
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $97,979
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,834/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $958

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,000 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $239,000 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $239,000 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,000 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $244,000 Active 171 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,000 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,000 Active 168 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,000 Active 167 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,000 Active 166 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,000 Active 165 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    price $244,000 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Take a look at this beautiful, spacious 4 bed 2 bath home on a nice .42 acre corner lot. The home is fairly new so has all the modern features you're looking for- open concept living, kitchen and dining area, large master bedroom with an ensuite bathroom and large walk in closet, split bedroom concept with the other 3 bedrooms on the other end of the home, designated pantry space as well as designated laundry room and much more. The large backyard is a treat on it's own, huge covered patio, hot tub, covered outdoor kitchen area with a bar, a slabbed fire pit area, a semi inground pool with a covered bar and pool deck. What a dream for entertaining family and friends! The backyard is also surrounded by a tall metal privacy fence. This property is ready and waiting for you!

19. 2025-12-15
    listed $249,000 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Take a look at this beautiful, spacious 4 bed 2 bath home on a nice .42 acre corner lot. The home is fairly new so has all the modern features you're looking for- open concept living, kitchen and dining area, large master bedroom with an ensuite bathroom and large walk in closet, split bedroom concept with the other 3 bedrooms on the other end of the home, designated pantry space as well as designated laundry room and much more. The large backyard is a treat on it's own, huge covered patio, hot tub, covered outdoor kitchen area with a bar, a slabbed fire pit area, a semi inground pool with a covered bar and pool deck. What a dream for entertaining family and friends! The backyard is also surrounded by a tall metal privacy fence. This property is ready and waiting for you!

20. 2023-05-17
    price $265,000
21. 2023-02-24
    listed $270,000 Active
22. 2022-12-26
    historical
23. 2022-08-02
    price $289,500
24. 2022-06-26
    listed $299,500 Active
25. 2019-02-04
    soldstatus
26. 1994-09-08
    soldstatus
27. 1993-09-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,834 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,374 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,540/yr (+$128/mo · 54.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$2,834
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,095
• − Management: −$3,095
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable income: $8,126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,950
• After-tax cash flow: $9,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graford, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,157

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $244,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $249,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-17 Price Changed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2023-02-24 Listed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-08-02 Price Changed $289,500 NTREIS
• 2022-06-26 Listed $299,500 NTREIS
• 2019-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+43.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,834 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.