4211 Birchwood Ave · Ashtabula, OH 44004

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1918 4,356 sqft lot $125/sqft · at area comps Est $156k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this nicely updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home that mixes classic charm with modern upgrades, featuring original woodwork, French doors, a heated sunroom, a walk-up attic, and hardwood floors under much of the carpet. There have been tons of updates, including new siding on the house and garage, a new garage roof, updated electric, a new furnace and hot water tank, newer plumbing and windows, new gas and water lines, and updated flooring throughout. Outside you’ve got a one-car garage and a fully fenced yard. This home is a must see.

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• New furnace
• Updated electric

Tags

• UPDATED ELECTRIC
• NEW FURNACE
• HOT WATER TANK
• NEW GAS LINES
• NEW WATER LINES
• UPDATED FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#420 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Ashtabula Area City (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #588 of 656 in OH (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Superior Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,151 of 1,584 statewide, top 73%, 436 students, 0% FRL); Lakeside Junior High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #579 of 654 statewide, top 89%, 505 students, 0% FRL); Lakeside High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #644 of 781 statewide, top 85%, 894 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 63% district-wide (63 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $143,177 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.40%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,523
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 2.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4214 Valleyview Blvd	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,298 (+2%)	14mo	$160,000	$123	83
4235 Birchwood Ave	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,352 (+6%)	14mo	$135,000	$100	76
4422 State Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+10%)	1mo	$173,000	$124	74
1739 E 48th St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,264 (-1%)	13mo	$55,000	$44	70
1629 E 47th St	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (+3%)	3mo	$141,000	$107	70
2045 E 42nd St	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-3%)	8mo	$200,000	$161	67
1611 E 48th St	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,168 (-9%)	6mo	$70,000	$60	62
342 W Prospect Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+1%)	15mo	$47,000	$36	57
1820 E 47th St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+11%)	10mo	$171,000	$120	53
313 W 41st St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	11mo	$145,000	$108	51
4302 Valleyview Blvd	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+14%)	19mo	$162,000	$111	49
1808 E 47th St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+13%)	19mo	$107,000	$74	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-17,868
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,315
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44004

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,432 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,188/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $172	+0% $127	+5% $82	+10% $36
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $70	+0% $127	+5% $183	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $168	base $127	+0.5pp $85	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-04-03
    price $159,900 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    Take a look at this nicely updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home that mixes classic charm with modern upgrades, featuring original woodwork, French doors, a heated sunroom, a walk-up attic, and hardwood floors under much of the carpet. There have been tons of updates, including new siding on the house and garage, a new garage roof, updated electric, a new furnace and hot water tank, newer plumbing and windows, new gas and water lines, and updated flooring throughout. Outside you’ve got a one-car garage and a fully fenced yard. This home is a must see.

18. 2026-03-25
    listed $164,900 Active 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    Take a look at this nicely updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home that mixes classic charm with modern upgrades, featuring original woodwork, French doors, a heated sunroom, a walk-up attic, and hardwood floors under much of the carpet. There have been tons of updates, including new siding on the house and garage, a new garage roof, updated electric, a new furnace and hot water tank, newer plumbing and windows, new gas and water lines, and updated flooring throughout. Outside you’ve got a one-car garage and a fully fenced yard. This home is a must see.

19. 2023-03-30
    soldstatus $146,000 Closed 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    Stop by this stylishly remodeled 3 bedroom, one and a half home that combines old world character with modern updates. Original woodwork is still intact throughout, along with original french doors, lead glass windows and a really great working brick fireplace! Let’s not forget the HUGE heated front sunroom, the walk-up attic with fresh insulation and the hardwood underneath much of the carpet. There are SO MANY UPDATES : New siding on home and garage, new garage roof, home completely rewired, new furnace, new hot water tank, nearly all plumbing new, most windows new, gas and water lines from street to home are new, partial new fencing, mostly new flooring and all fresh paint! Basement is immaculate and includes a half bath. Outdoor features include a one car garage and completely fenced backyard. Well worth taking a look!

20. 2023-03-30
    soldstatus $146,000

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    Stop by this stylishly remodeled 3 bedroom, one and a half home that combines old world character with modern updates. Original woodwork is still intact throughout, along with original french doors, lead glass windows and a really great working brick fireplace! Let’s not forget the HUGE heated front sunroom, the walk-up attic with fresh insulation and the hardwood underneath much of the carpet. There are SO MANY UPDATES : New siding on home and garage, new garage roof, home completely rewired, new furnace, new hot water tank, nearly all plumbing new, most windows new, gas and water lines from street to home are new, partial new fencing, mostly new flooring and all fresh paint! Basement is immaculate and includes a half bath. Outdoor features include a one car garage and completely fenced backyard. Well worth taking a look!

21. 2023-02-25
    status Pending 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    Stop by this stylishly remodeled 3 bedroom, one and a half home that combines old world character with modern updates. Original woodwork is still intact throughout, along with original french doors, lead glass windows and a really great working brick fireplace! Let’s not forget the HUGE heated front sunroom, the walk-up attic with fresh insulation and the hardwood underneath much of the carpet. There are SO MANY UPDATES : New siding on home and garage, new garage roof, home completely rewired, new furnace, new hot water tank, nearly all plumbing new, most windows new, gas and water lines from street to home are new, partial new fencing, mostly new flooring and all fresh paint! Basement is immaculate and includes a half bath. Outdoor features include a one car garage and completely fenced backyard. Well worth taking a look!

22. 2023-02-15
    price $144,900 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    Stop by this stylishly remodeled 3 bedroom, one and a half home that combines old world character with modern updates. Original woodwork is still intact throughout, along with original french doors, lead glass windows and a really great working brick fireplace! Let’s not forget the HUGE heated front sunroom, the walk-up attic with fresh insulation and the hardwood underneath much of the carpet. There are SO MANY UPDATES : New siding on home and garage, new garage roof, home completely rewired, new furnace, new hot water tank, nearly all plumbing new, most windows new, gas and water lines from street to home are new, partial new fencing, mostly new flooring and all fresh paint! Basement is immaculate and includes a half bath. Outdoor features include a one car garage and completely fenced backyard. Well worth taking a look!

23. 2023-01-26
    status Active 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    Stop by this stylishly remodeled 3 bedroom, one and a half home that combines old world character with modern updates. Original woodwork is still intact throughout, along with original french doors, lead glass windows and a really great working brick fireplace! Let’s not forget the HUGE heated front sunroom, the walk-up attic with fresh insulation and the hardwood underneath much of the carpet. There are SO MANY UPDATES : New siding on home and garage, new garage roof, home completely rewired, new furnace, new hot water tank, nearly all plumbing new, most windows new, gas and water lines from street to home are new, partial new fencing, mostly new flooring and all fresh paint! Basement is immaculate and includes a half bath. Outdoor features include a one car garage and completely fenced backyard. Well worth taking a look!

24. 2023-01-19
    historical Contingent 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    Stop by this stylishly remodeled 3 bedroom, one and a half home that combines old world character with modern updates. Original woodwork is still intact throughout, along with original french doors, lead glass windows and a really great working brick fireplace! Let’s not forget the HUGE heated front sunroom, the walk-up attic with fresh insulation and the hardwood underneath much of the carpet. There are SO MANY UPDATES : New siding on home and garage, new garage roof, home completely rewired, new furnace, new hot water tank, nearly all plumbing new, most windows new, gas and water lines from street to home are new, partial new fencing, mostly new flooring and all fresh paint! Basement is immaculate and includes a half bath. Outdoor features include a one car garage and completely fenced backyard. Well worth taking a look!

25. 2023-01-14
    listed $149,900 Active 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    Stop by this stylishly remodeled 3 bedroom, one and a half home that combines old world character with modern updates. Original woodwork is still intact throughout, along with original french doors, lead glass windows and a really great working brick fireplace! Let’s not forget the HUGE heated front sunroom, the walk-up attic with fresh insulation and the hardwood underneath much of the carpet. There are SO MANY UPDATES : New siding on home and garage, new garage roof, home completely rewired, new furnace, new hot water tank, nearly all plumbing new, most windows new, gas and water lines from street to home are new, partial new fencing, mostly new flooring and all fresh paint! Basement is immaculate and includes a half bath. Outdoor features include a one car garage and completely fenced backyard. Well worth taking a look!

26. 1994-10-28
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,188 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,841 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$653/yr (+$54/mo · 55.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,188
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,164
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$279
• After-tax cash flow: $1,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashtabula Area City
• NCES district ID: 3904351
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,812
• Composite: 24.3/100
• National rank: #7712
• State rank: #588 of 656 in OH

Livability — Ashtabula

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #6883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashtabula, OH
• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• City population: 31,076
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 31,076
• Household income: $49,507
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14.1

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.51%
• Current HPI: 260.7146
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+255.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $159,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-03-25 Listed $164,900 MLSNOW
• 2023-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-30 Sold (MLS) $146,000 MLSNOW
• 2023-02-25 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2023-02-15 Price Changed $144,900 MLSNOW
• 2023-01-26 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2023-01-19 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2023-01-14 Listed $149,900 MLSNOW
• 1994-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,188 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.