557 May Valley Dr · Murphy, MO 63026

$355,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1978 8,820 sqft lot Est $372k · at est. $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ROCKWOOD school district, 4 bedroom two story, FINISHED BASEMENT, level fenced yard - it's here for you! This home has been well maintained by the same owners for many years and is now ready for new owners to enjoy! Many things have been updated including the kitchen with the 42" cabinets, GRANITE counters, and (movable) center island! There is a breakfast room adjoining the kitchen and the family room, making a very open floor plan! Enjoy features such as the GAS FIREPLACE, newer windows (including a BAY WINDOW in the breakfast room with a window seat) crown molding, and a NEWER HVAC! All 4 bedrooms have overhead lights/fans and are generously sized, especially the master suite with its WALK-IN CLOSET and private bath! The lower level offers additional living space, plenty of room for another family room and a recreational area! It even WALKS OUT to an enclosed patio area leading to the yard! Plenty of storage inside and out! Not much to do here but ENJOY YOUR NEW HOME!

Key facts

• 8,820 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-641 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (31.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (38.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (38.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#461 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bowles Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 291 students, 20% FRL); Rockwood Summit Sr. High (math 35% / reading 68%, grade D+, #108 of 521 statewide, top 21%, 1,229 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $258k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,871 (38.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.74%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $372,068
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
520 May Valley Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,778 (-9%)	2mo	$339,900	$191	69
1251 Green Knoll Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,101 (+8%)	2mo	$325,000	$155	69
1369 Green Birch Ct	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,948 (0%)	7mo	$360,000	$185	65
708 Spring Crest Ct	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,957 (+0%)	12mo	$375,000	$192	57
839 Mary Lee Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,118 (+9%)	6mo	$807,189	$381	53
1249 Green Knoll Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,202 (+13%)	11mo	$325,000	$148	53
683 Greenholme Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,141 (+10%)	4mo	$350,000	$163	47
264 Trueman Heritage Ct	0.45mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,117 (+9%)	10mo	$619,662	$293	47
267 Trueman Heritage Ct	0.45mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,117 (+9%)	11mo	$644,070	$304	47
678 Greensleeves Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (-13%)	8mo	$309,900	$182	40
23 Quail Woods Dr	0.65mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,664 (-15%)	0mo	$335,000	$201	38
888 Oakmoor Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,194 (+13%)	12mo	$415,000	$189	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-87,593
• Equity at exit: $52,932

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-80,145
• Equity at exit: $30,694

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63026

• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,957/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,980

Max offer price $241,754

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,750
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
578 Green Forest Dr Fenton, MO	4.0	3.0	1254	$2,576	$2.05	44d	1	0.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $355,000 Active
3. 2026-04-23
   historical $355,000
4. 2020-12-17
   soldstatus $257,500
5. 2020-12-02
   soldstatus Closed 990-char remark

   Show marketing remark (990 chars)

   ROCKWOOD school district, 4 bedroom two story, FINISHED BASEMENT, level fenced yard - it's here for you! This home has been well maintained by the same owners for many years and is now ready for new owners to enjoy! Many things have been updated including the kitchen with the 42" cabinets, GRANITE counters, and (movable) center island! There is a breakfast room adjoining the kitchen and the family room, making a very open floor plan! Enjoy features such as the GAS FIREPLACE, newer windows (including a BAY WINDOW in the breakfast room with a window seat) crown molding, and a NEWER HVAC! All 4 bedrooms have overhead lights/fans and are generously sized, especially the master suite with its WALK-IN CLOSET and private bath! The lower level offers additional living space, plenty of room for another family room and a recreational area! It even WALKS OUT to an enclosed patio area leading to the yard! Plenty of storage inside and out! Not much to do here but ENJOY YOUR NEW HOME!

6. 2020-11-05
   historical Active Under Contract 990-char remark

   Show marketing remark (990 chars)

   ROCKWOOD school district, 4 bedroom two story, FINISHED BASEMENT, level fenced yard - it's here for you! This home has been well maintained by the same owners for many years and is now ready for new owners to enjoy! Many things have been updated including the kitchen with the 42" cabinets, GRANITE counters, and (movable) center island! There is a breakfast room adjoining the kitchen and the family room, making a very open floor plan! Enjoy features such as the GAS FIREPLACE, newer windows (including a BAY WINDOW in the breakfast room with a window seat) crown molding, and a NEWER HVAC! All 4 bedrooms have overhead lights/fans and are generously sized, especially the master suite with its WALK-IN CLOSET and private bath! The lower level offers additional living space, plenty of room for another family room and a recreational area! It even WALKS OUT to an enclosed patio area leading to the yard! Plenty of storage inside and out! Not much to do here but ENJOY YOUR NEW HOME!

7. 2020-11-02
   price $257,500 990-char remark

   Show marketing remark (990 chars)

   ROCKWOOD school district, 4 bedroom two story, FINISHED BASEMENT, level fenced yard - it's here for you! This home has been well maintained by the same owners for many years and is now ready for new owners to enjoy! Many things have been updated including the kitchen with the 42" cabinets, GRANITE counters, and (movable) center island! There is a breakfast room adjoining the kitchen and the family room, making a very open floor plan! Enjoy features such as the GAS FIREPLACE, newer windows (including a BAY WINDOW in the breakfast room with a window seat) crown molding, and a NEWER HVAC! All 4 bedrooms have overhead lights/fans and are generously sized, especially the master suite with its WALK-IN CLOSET and private bath! The lower level offers additional living space, plenty of room for another family room and a recreational area! It even WALKS OUT to an enclosed patio area leading to the yard! Plenty of storage inside and out! Not much to do here but ENJOY YOUR NEW HOME!

8. 2020-10-27
   price $262,500 990-char remark

   Show marketing remark (990 chars)

   ROCKWOOD school district, 4 bedroom two story, FINISHED BASEMENT, level fenced yard - it's here for you! This home has been well maintained by the same owners for many years and is now ready for new owners to enjoy! Many things have been updated including the kitchen with the 42" cabinets, GRANITE counters, and (movable) center island! There is a breakfast room adjoining the kitchen and the family room, making a very open floor plan! Enjoy features such as the GAS FIREPLACE, newer windows (including a BAY WINDOW in the breakfast room with a window seat) crown molding, and a NEWER HVAC! All 4 bedrooms have overhead lights/fans and are generously sized, especially the master suite with its WALK-IN CLOSET and private bath! The lower level offers additional living space, plenty of room for another family room and a recreational area! It even WALKS OUT to an enclosed patio area leading to the yard! Plenty of storage inside and out! Not much to do here but ENJOY YOUR NEW HOME!

9. 2020-10-21
   listed $269,900 Active 990-char remark

   Show marketing remark (990 chars)

   ROCKWOOD school district, 4 bedroom two story, FINISHED BASEMENT, level fenced yard - it's here for you! This home has been well maintained by the same owners for many years and is now ready for new owners to enjoy! Many things have been updated including the kitchen with the 42" cabinets, GRANITE counters, and (movable) center island! There is a breakfast room adjoining the kitchen and the family room, making a very open floor plan! Enjoy features such as the GAS FIREPLACE, newer windows (including a BAY WINDOW in the breakfast room with a window seat) crown molding, and a NEWER HVAC! All 4 bedrooms have overhead lights/fans and are generously sized, especially the master suite with its WALK-IN CLOSET and private bath! The lower level offers additional living space, plenty of room for another family room and a recreational area! It even WALKS OUT to an enclosed patio area leading to the yard! Plenty of storage inside and out! Not much to do here but ENJOY YOUR NEW HOME!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,957 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,957 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,886
• − Property taxes: −$3,957
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$14,264
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,423
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockwood R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2926850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $98,721
• Composite: 53.61/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #9 of 324 in MO

Livability — Murphy

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #18506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 108,544 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 45,354
• Household income: $97,553
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 513.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.59%
• Current HPI: 211.8944
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.72%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+31.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $355,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $355,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $257,500 Public Records
• 2020-12-02 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-05 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-02 Price Changed $257,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-27 Price Changed $262,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-21 Listed $269,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,957 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.