131 Rocky Reef Cir · Hot Springs, AR 71913

$123,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1988 2,613 sqft lot $125/sqft · 30% above area Est $95k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cute 3 Bedroom 2 Bath single family home is ready for its new owner. This is the perfect starter home or a great investment opportunity. Don't miss out on this one.

Key facts

• 2,613 sq ft lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Rocky Reef #1 subdivision; Located in Garland County, Hot Springs National Park, AR

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Utilities: Public sewer; Municipal electric service (Entergy)
• Home design: Inside city limits
• Construction: Metal/vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Slab and crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot in a subdivision; Paved road access; 30 x 96 lot (approximately)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Carpet and tile flooring; Den/family room; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $123k).
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.79%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,973
• List price: $123,000
• Delta: 29.51%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
131 Rocky Reef Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	984 (0%)	1mo	$94,500	$96	99
139 Rocky Reef Cir	0.02mi	3/2.0	984 (0%)	19mo	$77,900	$79	83
208 Rocky Reef Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,038 (+6%)	4mo	$118,000	$114	81
149 Rocky Reef Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,014 (+3%)	16mo	$66,500	$66	74
145 Rocky Reed Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (+3%)	20mo	$80,000	$79	72
147 Rocky Reef Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (+3%)	20mo	$80,000	$79	72
206 Rocky Reef Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	931 (-5%)	21mo	$90,000	$97	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $10,348
• Equity at exit: $18,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $63,819
• Equity at exit: $10,635

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $490/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $933

Max offer price $123,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
389 Lake Hamilton Dr Hot Springs National Park, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1137	$1,750	$1.54	44d	16	0.86mi
200 Lakeland Dr Hot Springs National Park, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	888	$1,155	$1.30	44d	10	1.06mi
180 Lakeland Dr Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	44d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Under Contract 205-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $123,000 Active 169-char remark

   Show marketing remark (169 chars)

   This cute 3 Bedroom 2 Bath single family home is ready for its new owner. This is the perfect starter home or a great investment opportunity. Don't miss out on this one.

3. 2026-04-21
   listed $123,000 New Listing 205-char remark
4. 2013-04-29
   soldstatus $53,000
5. 2013-04-28
   soldstatus $53,000

   Show marketing remark (114 chars)

   Investor or Owner Occupant! Solid rental history of $595 monthly. Location close to everything. See Agent Remarks.

6. 2013-02-22
   historical

   Show marketing remark (114 chars)

   Investor or Owner Occupant! Solid rental history of $595 monthly. Location close to everything. See Agent Remarks.

7. 2012-09-17
   listed $55,000

   Show marketing remark (114 chars)

   Investor or Owner Occupant! Solid rental history of $595 monthly. Location close to everything. See Agent Remarks.

8. 1997-11-07
   soldstatus $6,000
9. 1996-02-20
   soldstatus $12,000
10. 1992-01-08
    soldstatus $14,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $787 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$297/yr (+$25/mo · 60.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$490
• − Insurance: −$615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable income: $2,882
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$692
• After-tax cash flow: $4,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+530.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $94,500 Public Records
• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $94,500 HSBOR
• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $94,500 CARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $123,000 HSBOR
• 2026-04-21 Listed $123,000 CARMLS
• 2013-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-28 Sold (MLS) $53,000 CARMLS
• 2013-02-22 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2012-09-17 Listed $55,000 CARMLS
• 1997-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records
• 1996-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 1992-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $14,999 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $490 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.