46 Collins St · Caribou, ME 04736

$149,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1898 0.27 ac lot $151/sqft · 33% above area Est $194k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Many recent updates including new shingles, new furnace and oil tank, electrical entrance and mostly new wiring. Some new windows and a new heat pump. Large corner lot.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New heat pump
• Large corner lot

Tags

• NEW SHINGLES
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW OIL TANK
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW HEAT PUMP
• LARGE CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Caribou — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#46 in ME, #4,849 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• RSU 39 (town): math 82% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #79 of 112 in ME (top 70%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Aroostook County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Aroostook County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $149k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,452 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,317
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -23.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Spring St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	992 (+0%)	6mo	$110,000	$111	66
15 Page Ave	0.12mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,078 (+9%)	20mo	$146,000	$135	58
37 Pioneer Ave	0.28mi	4/1.0	1,080 (+9%)	17mo	$150,000	$139	56
41 Country Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+7%)	20mo	$174,900	$166	51
101 Glenn St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	928 (-6%)	16mo	$89,000	$96	40
25 Washington St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (+6%)	17mo	$205,000	$195	40
80 Garden Cir	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+10%)	10mo	$205,000	$188	38
7 Liberty St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,078 (+9%)	14mo	$165,000	$153	37
30 Westwind Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+9%)	23mo	$143,500	$133	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-34,744
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-43,967
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04736

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,489/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $119,663

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $149,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-03-10
    listed $159,000 Active 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    Many recent updates including new shingles, new furnace and oil tank, electrical entrance and mostly new wiring. Some new windows and a new heat pump. Large corner lot.

17. 2025-10-15
    price $115,000
18. 2025-07-29
    price $139,000
19. 2025-07-10
    price $134,000
20. 2025-06-27
    price $139,000
21. 2025-06-24
    price $145,000
22. 2025-06-05
    price $147,400
23. 2025-05-18
    price $149,900
24. 2025-04-23
    price $154,500
25. 2025-04-16
    price $139,500
26. 2025-04-02
    price $144,000
27. 2025-03-22
    price $149,000
28. 2024-11-03
    price $160,000
29. 2024-10-17
    price $164,000
30. 2024-10-12
    price $169,000
31. 2024-09-30
    price $175,000
32. 2024-09-06
    price $179,000
33. 2024-09-01
    price $184,900
34. 2024-07-30
    price $189,900
35. 2023-06-01
    soldstatus $47,000 Closed
36. 2023-05-04
    status Pending
37. 2023-04-21
    listed $59,900 Active
38. 2015-05-29
    soldstatus $33,900 Sold
39. 2015-05-14
    historical
40. 2015-05-01
    price $35,000
41. 2015-05-01
    status Active
42. 2015-04-24
    historical
43. 2015-03-26
    price $39,000
44. 2015-03-05
    listed $42,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,489 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,758 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$269/yr (+$22/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,489
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$974
• − Management: −$974
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$4,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,125
• After-tax cash flow: $-868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 39
• NCES district ID: 2314794
• Math proficiency: 82% ▲ 55.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 39.00%
• Median HH income: $38,159
• Composite: 68.6/100
• National rank: #341
• State rank: #79 of 112 in ME

Livability — Caribou

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #4849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caribou, ME
• City population: 9,107
• Population (ZIP): 9,107

Population outlook (Aroostook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,905 people
• By 2030: 57,815 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 49,240 · -20.5%
• By 2050: 41,386 · -33.1%
• By 2075: 27,664 · -55.3%
• By 2100: 18,974 · -69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 28% Slovak 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Aroostook

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.2% · R 62.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.8pp toward R · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+17.3 2012: D+7.7 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.06%
• Current HPI: 219.5142
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+274.1% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $159,000 MREIS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $115,000 MREIS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $139,000 MREIS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $134,000 MREIS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $139,000 MREIS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $145,000 MREIS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $147,400 MREIS
• 2025-05-18 Price Changed $149,900 MREIS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $154,500 MREIS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $139,500 MREIS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $144,000 MREIS
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $149,000 MREIS
• 2024-11-03 Price Changed $160,000 MREIS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $164,000 MREIS
• 2024-10-12 Price Changed $169,000 MREIS
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $175,000 MREIS
• 2024-09-06 Price Changed $179,000 MREIS
• 2024-09-01 Price Changed $184,900 MREIS
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed $189,900 MREIS
• 2023-06-01 Sold (MLS) $47,000 MREIS
• 2023-05-04 Pending — MREIS
• 2023-04-21 Listed $59,900 MREIS
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) $33,900 MREIS
• 2015-05-14 Delisted — MREIS
• 2015-05-01 Price Changed $35,000 MREIS
• 2015-05-01 Relisted — MREIS
• 2015-04-24 Delisted — MREIS
• 2015-03-26 Price Changed $39,000 MREIS
• 2015-03-05 Listed $42,500 MREIS

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,489 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.