180 Branch Rd · Red Springs, NC 28377

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1994

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 180 Branch Rd in Red Springs—a spacious and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfortable one-level living on a peaceful, wooded lot. Inside, you’ll find an open and functional layout with nearly 1,500 square feet of living space, highlighted by a large living room that flows into the dining area—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and a convenient breakfast nook filled with natural light. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, home office space, or family needs. Fresh, n

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Ample cabinetry
• Dining area

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• WOODED LOT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• AMPLE CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#441 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandy Grove Middle (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #251 of 475 statewide, top 54%, 645 students, 99% FRL); Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $125k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.63%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $45,121
• Equity at exit: $73,144

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $123,082
• Equity at exit: $128,237

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28377

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $514/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $949

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $258	+0% $222	+5% $187	+10% $152
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $174	+0% $222	+5% $271	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $285	-0.5pp $254	base $222	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $124,900
3. 2026-03-18
   price $134,500
4. 2026-02-12
   price $139,000
5. 2026-01-16
   listed $149,000 Active
6. 2025-12-16
   soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$510/yr (+$43/mo · 99.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$514
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$153
• After-tax cash flow: $2,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Red Springs

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #16213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,188

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.90)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 45% Black 25% White 16% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 0%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.31%
• Current HPI: 179.5206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+95.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $124,900 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $134,500 LPRMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $139,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $149,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $514 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.