13217 Aurora Dr Spc 11 · Winter Gardens, CA 92021

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $296k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Coveted Community of Los Coches Mobile Home Estates. This is a beautiful all ages family mobile home community offering wonderful amenities including a pool and spa, playground, as well as a clubhouse. The home is ideally located near the top of the community, with no neighbor behind or across the street, offering tons of privacy. As you step inside, you’ll be greeted by tall ceilings that create an inviting sense of openness, while the warm wood floors exude a cozy ambiance throughout. The generously sized living area provides ample space for relaxation and entertainment, perfect for gatherings with friends and family. Prepare to be impressed by the expansive floor pla

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL AND SPA
• PRIVACY WITH NO NEIGHBORS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $982 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $291k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.7% in Winter Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#515 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,498/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.03%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,352
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13217 Aurora Dr Spc 39	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-5%)	7mo	$339,900	$228	86
13162 Highway 8 Business SPC 2	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+1%)	7mo	$300,000	$189	79
13450 Highway 8 Business Spc 16	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+3%)	3mo	$325,000	$201	74
13300 Los Coches Rd #114	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,546 (-1%)	10mo	$217,000	$140	71
13460 Highway 8 Business Spc 11	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	10mo	$295,000	$192	66
13300 Los Coches Rd E #8	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	9mo	$225,000	$134	62
13450 Highway 8 Business #99	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-10%)	10mo	$330,000	$234	62
13162 Highway 8 Business #104	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	3mo	$260,000	$193	59
12970 Highway 8 Business #71	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,653 (+5%)	3mo	$239,000	$145	58
13162 Highway 8 Business #200	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-13%)	2mo	$165,000	$121	56
12970 Highway 8 Business #93	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (-5%)	2mo	$265,000	$177	53
12970 Highway 8 Business SPC 17	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+7%)	6mo	$258,000	$154	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $3,570
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $43,532
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $997/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $982

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,255

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8809 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	4.0	2.0	1350	$3,800	$2.81	1d	1	0.45mi
2000 E Main St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5–2.5	1165	$3,300	$2.83	1d	1	0.77mi
9092 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$4,000	$3.08	2d	1	0.86mi
9094 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$4,000	$3.33	1d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-06-26
   status Pending
2. 2024-05-23
   status Pending
3. 2024-04-05
   listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $997 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,283/yr (+$107/mo · 128.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$997
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,358
• − Management: −$3,358
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $7,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,736
• After-tax cash flow: $10,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winter Gardens

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #17448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Gardens, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-26 Pending — SDMLS
• 2024-05-23 Pending — SDMLS
• 2024-04-05 Listed $300,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2013): $997 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.