4147 Napoli Lake Dr · Riviera Beach, FL 33410

$276,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,221 sqft · Townhouse public records · 130 Days on market

Built 2007 $293/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great central Palm Beach Location near 95, Shopping on Northlake Blvd, Beaches, Publix, a quick drive to downtown West Palm Beach, VA Hospital, and Gardens Mall.

Key facts

• Va hospital
• Gardens mall
• Near 95

Tags

• CENTRAL PALM BEACH LOCATION
• NEAR 95
• SHOPPING ON NORTHLAKE BLVD
• VA HOSPITAL
• GARDENS MALL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area listed from public records; Total building area approximately 1,296 (source: public records)
• Financial info: Community contains 96 units; Pets allowed with possible breed/size restrictions
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association amenities include fitness center, pool, parking, and sidewalks; HOA covers insurance, grounds maintenance, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Security: Gated community (no guard)
• Utilities: Three-phase electric service available; Public sewer; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Townhouse; Entry-level living area; Two-story building; Faces west; Resale condition
• Construction: Built with concrete/CBS construction; Spanish tile roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom (three total); One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling (air conditioning)
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Watt Wise energy feature
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet inside with washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#581 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grove Park Elementary School (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,773 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 511 students, 79% FRL); John F. Kennedy Middle School (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #482 of 571 statewide, top 85%, 826 students, 78% FRL); Palm Beach Gardens High School (math 19% / reading 40%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,570 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,672 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-51,476
• Equity at exit: $41,287

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-56,522
• Equity at exit: $23,941

Cash invested: $77,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33410

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,452
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,849/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$293
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,866

Max offer price $261,770

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,225
• Closing costs: $8,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9000 Woodbine Trl Riviera Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,360	$2.29	2d	1	0.16mi
321 Sandtree Dr Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$3,000	$2.03	24d	1	1.09mi
321 Sandtree Dr Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$3,000	$2.03	11d	1	1.09mi
4289 S Mary Cir Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$2,850	$2.29	24d	1	1.10mi
8731 Uranus Ter West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$3,200	$3.56	24d	1	1.33mi
9147 Reed Dr Unit A Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,400	$2.43	5d	1	1.46mi
9126 E Highland Pines Blvd Unit 1326848P Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1496	$5,292	$3.54	3d	1	1.47mi
9130 E Highland Pines Blvd Unit 1326856P Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1721	$3,696	$2.15	2d	2	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $293 · $3,516/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $276,900 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $276,900 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $276,900 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $276,900 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-04-04
   status Active
6. 2026-03-07
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-01-25
   listed $276,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,849 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,849 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,511
• − Property taxes: −$4,849
• − Insurance: −$1,384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,648
• − Management: −$2,648
• − HOA: −$3,516
• − Depreciation: −$8,055
• Taxable loss: −$5,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,323
• After-tax cash flow: $296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riviera Beach

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #581
• US rank: #11060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riviera Beach, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 30,912
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,759
• Household income: $94,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -346.12%
• Current HPI: 375.5381
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.49%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-07 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $276,900 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,849 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.