1672 Tarpon Bay Dr S #102 · Vineyards, FL 34119

$360,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · Condo public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2001 $888/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1st floor unit is impeccable. 2 bedrooms and a den, with a one car garage. This unit will not last with such low real real estate inventories available for sale in Naples. Beautiful condo, priced to sell. Make your appointment today before it is gone.

Key facts

• Gated community
• One car garage
• Brand new roof

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• ONE CAR GARAGE
• HURRICANE IMPACT WINDOWS
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a larger complex (352 units total; 6 units in building); Unit is in Sub-Community: Neptune Bay (Tarpon Bay development); Unit number/lot unit 102
• Financial info: Total annual recurring fees noted
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master association quarterly fee; Condo quarterly fee; Professional management; Maintenance covers cable, insurance, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, reserves, street lights, and street maintenance; Community amenities include: clubhouse, community pool and spa/hot tub, exercise room, business center, library, community room, community park, play area, bike and jog paths, bike storage, tennis courts, pickleball, bocce, volleyball, basketball, BBQ/picnic areas, billiards, underground utilities, and streetlighting; Gated, tennis community

Exterior

• Parking: Deeded parking with 2+ spaces; Paved driveway and paved parking; Detached 1-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential townhouse (Carriage/Coach); Built in 2001; Rear exposure faces west
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Single-hung windows; Stucco exterior finish; Gated community; Zero lot line; Wooded area view; Paved private road access; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den; Master bedroom on ground level; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Fire sprinkler system; Foyer; High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Vaulted ceilings; Window coverings; Island kitchen; Den/Study; Family room; Great room; Laundry in residence; Screened balcony; Furnished negotiable; 2-story floor plan; Great room style; Split bedroom plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Laundry located in the residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $360k).
• Recommended offer: $328k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vineyards Elementary School (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 845 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 55% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 77% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $168k; list at $360k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.52%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-56,512
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-76,808
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34119

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,112 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$888
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$864
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,844

Max offer price $360,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $313	+0% $212	+5% $110	+10% $8
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $49	+0% $212	+5% $374	+10% $536
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $303	base $212	+0.5pp $118	+1.0pp $23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1710 Tarpon Bay Dr S Unit 4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1537	$2,200	$1.43	14d	1	0.08mi
1634 Tarpon Bay Dr S #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	24d	1	0.12mi
1634 Tarpon Bay Dr S #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	14d	1	0.12mi
1761 Tarpon Bay Dr S #58 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1879	$3,299	$1.76	24d	1	0.13mi
1628 Cayman Ct #2 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1879	$6,500	$3.46	24d	1	0.13mi
1882 Tarpon Bay Dr S Unit 2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,200	$1.65	14d	1	0.23mi
6051 Shallows Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,000	$2.50	24d	1	0.30mi
2001 Tarpon Bay Dr N #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1620	$5,400	$3.33	24d	1	0.31mi
2004 Tarpon Bay Dr N #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	24d	1	0.34mi
2004 Tarpon Bay Dr N #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,450	$1.39	24d	1	0.34mi
6215 Wilshire Pines Cir #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$4,500	$2.83	24d	1	0.37mi
2115 Malibu Lake Cir Naples, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$2,282	$1.92	14d	56	0.43mi
6325 Wilshire Pines Cir #308 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1577	$5,000	$3.17	14d	1	0.43mi
15126 Palmer Lake Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1254	$3,000	$2.39	24d	2	0.55mi
15144 Palmer Lake Cir #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1375	$6,500	$4.73	24d	1	0.65mi
15145 Palmer Lake Cir #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$7,000	$4.46	24d	1	0.67mi
15181 Butler Lake Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2152	$7,500	$3.49	14d	1	0.82mi
15177 Butler Lake Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2152	$8,500	$3.95	14d	1	0.83mi
5000 Immokalee Rd Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$3,186	$2.86	14d	68	0.93mi
4965 Sandra Bay Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,200	$1.60	14d	1	0.94mi
2864 Tiburon Blvd E #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2159	$13,500	$6.25	14d	1	0.94mi
2864 Tiburon Blvd E #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2159	$13,500	$6.25	24d	1	0.94mi
1156 Oakes Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$7,500	$4.83	24d	1	0.96mi
4940 Cougar Ct S Unit 1545947P Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,185	$1.60	14d	1	0.97mi
4945 Cougar Ct S #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,750	$2.00	14d	1	0.99mi
2847 Tiburon Blvd E #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2159	$6,500	$3.01	14d	1	0.99mi
10020 Heather Ln Unit 9-904 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,350	$1.43	24d	1	1.01mi
10033 Heather Ln Unit 5-502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$2,300	$1.30	24d	1	1.02mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$5,000	$4.16	24d	1	1.04mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$4,200	$2.94	24d	1	1.04mi
4910 Cougar Ct N Unit 1-205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,050	$1.49	14d	1	1.05mi
4970 Deerfield Way Unit F-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,990	$1.43	14d	1	1.05mi
2809 Tiburon Blvd E Unit 2 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2159	$18,000	$8.34	14d	1	1.08mi
4960 Deerfield Way Unit E102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$4,250	$3.54	14d	1	1.08mi
4950 Deerfield Way #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$2,000	$1.44	22d	1	1.08mi
5025 Cedar Springs Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$1,590	$1.32	14d	1	1.10mi
5025 Cedar Springs Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1202	$3,510	$2.92	24d	1	1.10mi
3775 Fieldstone Blvd Unit 102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1281	$4,700	$3.67	14d	1	1.11mi
5105 Cedar Springs Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1650	$7,000	$4.24	24d	1	1.12mi
4680 Saint Croix Ln #512 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$2,490	$2.08	24d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $888 · $10,656/yr
• Likely covers: cable
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $360,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $360,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $360,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $360,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $360,000 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,335 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,988 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,653/yr (+$138/mo · 123.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,948
• − Management: −$3,948
• − HOA: −$10,656
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$2,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$715
• After-tax cash flow: $3,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vineyards

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #14101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,807
• Household income: $113,391
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 741.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.12%
• Current HPI: 269.3208
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+22.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $360,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $365,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2012-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $168,000 Public Records
• 2012-11-20 Sold (MLS) $163,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2012-08-27 Listed $164,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2005-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,335 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.