2553 Guineas Ln · Krugerville, TX 76227

$246,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $306k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: New construction inventory type: Spec
• Financial info: List price $304,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home; Active listing
• Construction: Kitson plan
• Exterior features: Address: 2553 Guineas Ln, Aubrey, TX 76227

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Kitson plan); Living area approximately 1,451

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-452/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Krugerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#672 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hl Brockett (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 529 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey Middle (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 814 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey H S (math 45% / reading 57%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 923 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1925 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $211,298 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,161
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 Perkins Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+3%)	1mo	$314,900	$210	78
203 Surveyors Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+5%)	2mo	$320,000	$211	64
120 Perkins Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+7%)	10mo	$329,000	$212	64
206 Ranch Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	24mo	$365,000	$250	57
101 Faircrest Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+12%)	21mo	$313,000	$193	56
211 Surveyors Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	23mo	$400,000	$275	52
210 Kruger Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+7%)	12mo	$325,000	$209	52
310 Ranch Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+2%)	24mo	$299,900	$202	49
312 Perkins Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+14%)	2mo	$325,000	$197	49
601 Squires Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,233 (-15%)	15mo	$425,000	$345	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,586
• Equity at exit: $36,828

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-69,200
• Equity at exit: $21,356

Cash invested: $69,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1925
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,113 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$309 /mo · $3,705/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,161

Max offer price $241,545

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $48	+0% $-38	+5% $-123	+10% $-208
Rent	-10% $-205	-5% $-121	+0% $-38	+5% $46	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $25	base $-38	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,750
• Closing costs: $7,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	18d	1	0.97mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	9d	1	0.97mi
9108 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,900	$1.39	14d	1	1.02mi
1000 Mason St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$2,200	$1.43	45d	1	1.04mi
685 Coleman St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1869	$2,400	$1.28	9d	1	1.04mi
502 Brumley Rd Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,895	$1.29	45d	1	1.05mi
229 Irick Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$2,000	$1.49	5d	1	1.21mi
933 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,100	$1.45	45d	1	1.21mi
901 King St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	1761	$2,625	$1.49	4d	1	1.26mi
717 Presidio St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	20d	1	1.27mi
9808 High Banker Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,998	$1.56	22d	1	1.41mi
9808 High Banker Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,998	$1.56	0d	1	1.41mi
601 Countryside Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	6d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   price $246,999 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   remarks 419-char remark
3. 2026-06-21
   listed $304,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,836
• − Property taxes: −$3,705
• − Insurance: −$1,235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − Depreciation: −$7,185
• Taxable loss: −$4,662
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It has a spacious open floorplan and a private owner's suite. The home is ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding and repainting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring with a more modern material — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to the latest models — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Adding smart home features to the HVAC system — Smart home features can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping the front yard with more vibrant plants and flowers — A well-maintained and visually appealing front yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding and repainting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring with a more modern material — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to the latest models — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features to the HVAC system — Smart home features can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard with more vibrant plants and flowers — A well-maintained and visually appealing front yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Krugerville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #672
• US rank: #12629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 55,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B