318 Boone St · Alvarado, TX 76009

$135,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2021 5,663 sqft lot $211/sqft · 18% below area Est $165k · 18% under $155/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're dreaming of living near the lake without sacrificing convenience or affordability, this is the one you've been waiting for! Tucked inside the desirable Blue Water Oaks community on Lake Alvarado, this charming 2021-built home offers more than just a place to live—it offers a lifestyle. Enjoy full access to everything the lake community has to offer: private boat launch, dock, community pool, park, and more—all just blocks away. Whether you're looking to spend your weekends on the water, kayaking at sunrise, fishing off the dock, or relaxing by the pool, it’s all right here. The home features an open-concept studio layout with easy-care vinyl flooring and a full bathroom. Plus high-speed internet access means you're ready to unplug or plug in—whatever your lifestyle calls for. Step outside and you'll find a peaceful, partially wooded lot with native landscaping, a gravel drive, and plenty of room to park your boat or RV. There’s also a garage or can be used as a workshop —ideal for weekend projects, outdoor gear, or lake toys. With a low HOA fee that gives you access to all the community amenities, plus pays for sewer, water and trash, this is lakeside living made simple and stress-free. Whether you're seeking a low-maintenance full-time home, a weekend getaway, or a smart rental investment, this property checks all the boxes. Come see it today—homes this close to the lake at this price don’t last long!

Key facts

• Lake community
• Native landscaping
• Community pool

Tags

• LAKE COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE BOAT LAUNCH
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PARTIALLY WOODED LOT
• NATIVE LANDSCAPING
• ROOM TO PARK BOAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Alvarado — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#228 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Alvarado ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #416 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alvarado J H (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 845 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 360 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,871 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,275
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -18.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-32,985
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-42,710
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76009

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,259/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,380

Max offer price $103,871

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-100	-5% $-138	+0% $-176	+5% $-214	+10% $-253
Rent	-10% $-268	-5% $-222	+0% $-176	+5% $-130	+10% $-85
Rate	-1.0pp $-108	-0.5pp $-142	base $-176	+0.5pp $-211	+1.0pp $-247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashinternetlandscapingpool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-02-27
    listed $135,000 Active 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    If you're dreaming of living near the lake without sacrificing convenience or affordability, this is the one you've been waiting for! Tucked inside the desirable Blue Water Oaks community on Lake Alvarado, this charming 2021-built home offers more than just a place to live—it offers a lifestyle. Enjoy full access to everything the lake community has to offer: private boat launch, dock, community pool, park, and more—all just blocks away. Whether you're looking to spend your weekends on the water, kayaking at sunrise, fishing off the dock, or relaxing by the pool, it’s all right here. The home features an open-concept studio layout with easy-care vinyl flooring and a full bathroom. Plus high-speed internet access means you're ready to unplug or plug in—whatever your lifestyle calls for. Step outside and you'll find a peaceful, partially wooded lot with native landscaping, a gravel drive, and plenty of room to park your boat or RV. There’s also a garage or can be used as a workshop —ideal for weekend projects, outdoor gear, or lake toys. With a low HOA fee that gives you access to all the community amenities, plus pays for sewer, water and trash, this is lakeside living made simple and stress-free. Whether you're seeking a low-maintenance full-time home, a weekend getaway, or a smart rental investment, this property checks all the boxes. Come see it today—homes this close to the lake at this price don’t last long!

16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-07-22
    price $139,000
18. 2025-07-14
    listed $135,000 Active
19. 2025-05-18
    historical
20. 2024-11-18
    listed $139,900 Active
21. 2024-11-01
    historical
22. 2024-06-27
    listed $139,900 Active
23. 2024-06-27
    historical
24. 2024-05-01
    listed $139,900 Active
25. 2024-04-22
    historical
26. 2024-03-25
    price $140,000
27. 2023-10-24
    listed $145,000 Active
28. 1986-11-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,259 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,212/yr (+$101/mo · 96.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,259
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$4,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,059
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvarado ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800011
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,485
• Composite: 34.02/100
• National rank: #5312
• State rank: #416 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvarado

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #5544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 22,803
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,803
• Household income: $79,755
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 17% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.74%
• Current HPI: 251.2624
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-11-18 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2024-11-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-06-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-06-27 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2024-05-01 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2024-04-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-24 Listed $145,000 NTREIS
• 1986-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+59.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,259 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.