7 Fern Trl · Wurtsboro Hills, NY 12790

$245,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1961 0.32 ac lot Est $239k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 4-season, move-in ready home offering privacy, flexibility, and long-range mountain views in the heart of Wurtsboro. Tucked away in a peaceful setting, this home lives larger than expected with 2 bedrooms plus 2 finished attic bonus rooms, ideal for guest space, home offices, or creative use. The main level features a bright, open-concept living and dining area filled with natural light, seamlessly connected to a window-lined kitchen designed for everyday living and easy entertaining. Step directly onto the deck and take in the quiet surroundings, perfect for grilling, relaxing, or enjoying clear night skies. A full walk-out basement significantly expands the usable space,

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Window-lined kitchen
• Thoughtful built-ins

Tags

• LONG-RANGE MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FINISHED ATTIC BONUS ROOMS
• WINDOW-LINED KITCHEN
• FULL WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• THOUGHTFUL BUILT-INS
• RECENT UPDATES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction; Finished attic; Full basement
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 levels (total 4 rooms)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Walk-through kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.1% in Wurtsboro Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emma C Chase School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 228 students, 57% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $245k implies a 444% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,648 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,680
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Elm Rd N	0.35mi	2/1.5	1,161 (+8%)	3mo	$205,000	$177	67
8 Locust Trl	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,139 (+6%)	8mo	$180,000	$158	64
74 Sunrise Trl	0.26mi	2/1.0	996 (-8%)	14mo	$220,000	$221	63
6 Hoeppner Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,077 (-0%)	4mo	$185,000	$172	62
15 Brook W	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+7%)	17mo	$275,000	$239	60
55 Maple Trl	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,136 (+5%)	21mo	$150,000	$132	59
6 Elm Rd S	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	932 (-14%)	2mo	$240,000	$258	50
60 Flicker Trl	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-11%)	9mo	$260,000	$271	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $123,063
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $370,595
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12790

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,387/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,113

Max offer price $216,198

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-94	+0% $-163	+5% $-232	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-314	-5% $-238	+0% $-163	+5% $-88	+10% $-12
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-101	base $-163	+0.5pp $-227	+1.0pp $-291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Lincoln Rd Wurtsboro, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	20d	1	1.16mi
11 Lincoln Rd Wurtsboro, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	45d	1	1.16mi
127 Pine St Unit 4 Wurtsboro, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,525	$2.10	15d	1	1.16mi
135 Sullivan St Unit Downstairs Wurtsboro, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	15d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $245,000 Active
3. 2026-01-24
   listed $255,000 Active
4. 2026-01-19
   historical
5. 2023-01-27
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,387 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,764 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,387
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,830
• − Management: −$1,830
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,499
• After-tax cash flow: $-457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wurtsboro Hills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wurtsboro Hills, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,341

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 95.79%
• Current HPI: 452.7233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+444.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $245,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Listed $255,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,387 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.