909 Western Ave · Watervliet, MI 49098

$259,190

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2024 0.33 ac lot Est $201k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly constructed bilevel in the P H Lewis Community. This new home boasts features including: 10-yr structural warranty, energy efficiency, 200 AMP Service, attached 22x20 two stall garage, quartz counters in the kitchen, vinyl flooring on the entire upper level, lower level laundry, and covered front porch entry.

Key facts

• 200 amp service
• Energy efficiency
• Lower level laundry

Tags

• NEWLY CONSTRUCTED BILEVEL
• 10-YR STRUCTURAL WARRANTY
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• 200 AMP SERVICE
• QUARTZ COUNTERS IN THE KITCHEN
• LOWER LEVEL LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-36/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Watervliet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#295 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Watervliet School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #260 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Elementary School (359 students, 68% FRL); Watervliet Middle School (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #235 of 493 statewide, top 49%, 288 students, 62% FRL); Watervliet Senior High School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #334 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 393 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $204k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $198,596 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,428
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
925 Forest Park Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,316 (-3%)	1mo	$156,000	$119	67
423 Paw Paw Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+2%)	16mo	$51,150	$37	61
314 Riverside Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,450 (+6%)	8mo	$215,000	$148	56
234 W Pleasant St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,284 (-6%)	2mo	$192,500	$150	52
434 Elm St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,368 (+0%)	17mo	$69,000	$50	49
4979 Park Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,290 (-5%)	15mo	$242,500	$188	48
8137 Forest Beach Rd	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,478 (+9%)	7mo	$65,500	$44	46
8039 Shore Ln	0.62mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,462 (+7%)	11mo	$440,000	$301	43
340 High View St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (+12%)	3mo	$235,052	$154	41
411 Paw Paw Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (-13%)	17mo	$40,000	$34	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-42,294
• Equity at exit: $38,646

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-37,498
• Equity at exit: $22,410

Cash invested: $72,573 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49098

• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,359
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,256/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,990

Max offer price $258,665

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $70	+0% $-3	+5% $-76	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-81	+0% $-3	+5% $75	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $63	base $-3	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,798
• Closing costs: $7,776
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4020 Sumner Dr Watervliet, MI	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,395	$1.37	45d	1	0.79mi
7604 Red Arrow Hwy Watervliet, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1078	$1,319	$1.22	45d	1	0.93mi
3882 Watertown Dr Watervliet, MI	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,195	$1.25	45d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2024-12-17
   status Pending 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Newly constructed bilevel in the P H Lewis Community. This new home boasts features including: 10-yr structural warranty, energy efficiency, 200 AMP Service, attached 22x20 two stall garage, quartz counters in the kitchen, vinyl flooring on the entire upper level, lower level laundry, and covered front porch entry.

2. 2024-06-12
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Newly constructed bilevel in the P H Lewis Community. This new home boasts features including: 10-yr structural warranty, energy efficiency, 200 AMP Service, attached 22x20 two stall garage, quartz counters in the kitchen, vinyl flooring on the entire upper level, lower level laundry, and covered front porch entry.

3. 2024-06-12
   listed $259,190 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Newly constructed bilevel in the P H Lewis Community. This new home boasts features including: 10-yr structural warranty, energy efficiency, 200 AMP Service, attached 22x20 two stall garage, quartz counters in the kitchen, vinyl flooring on the entire upper level, lower level laundry, and covered front porch entry.

4. 2024-06-12
   historical 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Newly constructed bilevel in the P H Lewis Community. This new home boasts features including: 10-yr structural warranty, energy efficiency, 200 AMP Service, attached 22x20 two stall garage, quartz counters in the kitchen, vinyl flooring on the entire upper level, lower level laundry, and covered front porch entry.

5. 2024-06-12
   listed $259,190 Active

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Newly constructed bilevel in the P H Lewis Community. This new home boasts features including: 10-yr structural warranty, energy efficiency, 200 AMP Service, attached 22x20 two stall garage, quartz counters in the kitchen, vinyl flooring on the entire upper level, lower level laundry, and covered front porch entry.

6. 2024-06-12
   historical 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Newly constructed bilevel in the P H Lewis Community. This new home boasts features including: 10-yr structural warranty, energy efficiency, 200 AMP Service, attached 22x20 two stall garage, quartz counters in the kitchen, vinyl flooring on the entire upper level, lower level laundry, and covered front porch entry.

7. 2024-06-12
   listed $259,190 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Newly constructed bilevel in the P H Lewis Community. This new home boasts features including: 10-yr structural warranty, energy efficiency, 200 AMP Service, attached 22x20 two stall garage, quartz counters in the kitchen, vinyl flooring on the entire upper level, lower level laundry, and covered front porch entry.

8. 2023-07-20
   soldstatus $204,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,256 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,624 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,368/yr (+$114/mo · 108.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,519
• − Property taxes: −$1,256
• − Insurance: −$1,296
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$7,540
• Taxable loss: −$4,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $1,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watervliet School District
• NCES district ID: 2635460
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,249
• Composite: 31.22/100
• National rank: #6034
• State rank: #260 of 540 in MI

Livability — Watervliet

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #295
• US rank: #7373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watervliet, MI
• Population (ZIP): 5,791

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.00%
• Current HPI: 208.2105
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+27.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-06-12 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-06-12 Listed $259,190 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-12 Listed $259,190 SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-06-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-06-12 Listed $259,190 REALCOMP
• 2023-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $204,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,256 · +152.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.