12556 Stablegate Dr · Grangerland, TX 77306

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Land · 32 Days on market

Built 2024 0.31 ac lot $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity to build your dream home or move to your brand-new mobile home. Spring Branch subdivision is waiting for you. Good location, a Short Drive to the Woodlands, Houston, and Conroe Area, and a Great school district. The property comes with a crushed concrete driveway, Utilities ready to be tapped into, Electric, Water, Sewer, and fiber optic internet. Walking distance from pond and park. Don't miss the opportunity to own a piece of Texas!

Key facts

• Open-concept home
• Massive island
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT HOME
• RUSTIC WOOD BEAM ACCENTS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• MASSIVE ISLAND
• FARMHOUSE SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: IMC Conroe homeowners association; Annual association fee of $235

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One story; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2024; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (12 x 15); Bedroom on first floor (9 x 15); Bedroom on first floor (8 x 11)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on first floor (7 x 12); Bathroom on first floor (5.5 x 7.9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Separate shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-19/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $171,306 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-35,826
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-31,634
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,074/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,715

Max offer price $219,721

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $61	+0% $-2	+5% $-64	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-69	+0% $-2	+5% $66	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $54	base $-2	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17980 Farm to Market Road 2090 Unit 2090 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	982	$1,850	$1.88	44d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerelectricinternet

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $220,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-17
    listed $220,000 Active
15. 2024-07-30
    soldstatus Sold 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Opportunity to build your dream home or move to your brand-new mobile home. Spring Branch subdivision is waiting for you. Good location, a Short Drive to the Woodlands, Houston, and Conroe Area, and a Great school district. The property comes with a crushed concrete driveway, Utilities ready to be tapped into, Electric, Water, Sewer, and fiber optic internet. Walking distance from pond and park. Don't miss the opportunity to own a piece of Texas!

16. 2024-07-23
    status Pending 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Opportunity to build your dream home or move to your brand-new mobile home. Spring Branch subdivision is waiting for you. Good location, a Short Drive to the Woodlands, Houston, and Conroe Area, and a Great school district. The property comes with a crushed concrete driveway, Utilities ready to be tapped into, Electric, Water, Sewer, and fiber optic internet. Walking distance from pond and park. Don't miss the opportunity to own a piece of Texas!

17. 2024-07-19
    listed $67,950 Active 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Opportunity to build your dream home or move to your brand-new mobile home. Spring Branch subdivision is waiting for you. Good location, a Short Drive to the Woodlands, Houston, and Conroe Area, and a Great school district. The property comes with a crushed concrete driveway, Utilities ready to be tapped into, Electric, Water, Sewer, and fiber optic internet. Walking distance from pond and park. Don't miss the opportunity to own a piece of Texas!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,952/yr (+$246/mo · 274.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,074
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$929
• After-tax cash flow: $910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+223.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-07-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-07-19 Listed $67,950 HARMLS

Property tax history

+59.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,074 · +59.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.