24 Macarthur Dr · Williamsville, NY 14221

$399,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,135 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1966 0.33 ac lot Est $465k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very clean home with extremely spacious rooms throughout and spacious rear yard. You will be amazed by the sense of space when you enter the front door. Many mechanical updates over the years will allow a new owner to settle right in without a lot of big ticket expenses. The living room with cathedral ceilings greets as you enter and provides a feeling of tremendous openness. A lot of people can comfortably join in a meal in the substantial dining room that is right off the kitchen. The cozy family room that is visible from the kitchen offers a wood burning fireplace with a gas starter and a metal flue that was installed by the sellers. This leads directly to the large yard through the thre

Key facts

• Three season room
• Spacious rear yard
• Cathedral ceilings

Tags

• SPACIOUS REAR YARD
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• THREE SEASON ROOM
• PARTIALLY FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• ELECTRICAL SERVICE REPLACEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener and electricity; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing/resale property; Asphalt architectural shingle roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Concrete driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 0.33 acre, 115 x 125)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Free-standing range; Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor; Bedroom 2 on second floor; Bedroom 3 on second floor; Bedroom 4 on second floor
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Mixed/Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating (hot water, zoned); Zoned cooling; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Primary bedroom with private bath; Storm windows; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $379k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $358k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $358k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Williamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#44 in NY, #693 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $399k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $358,066 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $465,430
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
60 Patton Pl	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,248 (+5%)	4mo	$450,000	$200	83
153 Patton Pl	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,100 (-2%)	2mo	$511,000	$243	81
73 Treebrooke Ct	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,116 (-1%)	6mo	$350,000	$165	73
141 Patton Pl	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,972 (-8%)	2mo	$475,000	$241	72
242 Macarthur Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,185 (+2%)	1mo	$420,000	$192	70
48 Presidio Pl	0.21mi	4/1.5	1,976 (-7%)	6mo	$328,000	$166	69
69 Culpepper Rd	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,884 (-12%)	6mo	$410,000	$218	64
373 Sherbrooke Ave	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,000 (-6%)	4mo	$495,000	$248	52
113 Belvoir Rd	0.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,888 (-12%)	2mo	$424,900	$225	50
80 Chaumont Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,423 (+14%)	6mo	$450,000	$186	50
97 Ponderosa Dr	0.66mi	4/1.5	2,351 (+10%)	3mo	$399,999	$170	46
214 Presidio Pl	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,841 (-14%)	1mo	$470,000	$255	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-64,450
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-33,318
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,581 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$685 /mo · $8,226/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$752
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,727

Max offer price $378,614

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $-2	+0% $-115	+5% $-228	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-257	+0% $-115	+5% $26	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $-14	base $-115	+0.5pp $-219	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Telfair Dr Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.5	1976	$4,250	$2.15	5d	1	0.25mi
116 Segsbury Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	25d	1	0.75mi
306 Sagewood Ter Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1907	$3,000	$1.57	5d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $399,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-05
   listed $399,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,226 · $685/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,226 · $685/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$8,226
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,437
• − Management: −$3,437
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$8,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,940
• After-tax cash flow: $556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamsville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #693

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,255
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+232.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $399,000 WNYREIS
• 1999-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,226 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.