2903 Blue Ridge Ln · Temple, TX 76504

$194,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,405 sqft lot $138/sqft · 16% below area Est $232k · 16% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Wagner - This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living, ideal for modern lifestyles. Two bedrooms are located near the front of the home surrounding a full bathroom, adjacent to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A luxurious owner’s suite provides a serene retreat at the back of the home with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $30 monthly fee (includes common area maintenance); Community trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway parking; Two covered parking spaces (total 2)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction by Lennar; Faces northeast; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; New construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Back yard fencing; Back yard, front yard, interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Main-level primary bedroom; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Temple — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D+.
• Temple ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #590 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 278 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $156,193 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.16%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,990
• List price: $194,990
• Delta: -15.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2914 Blue Ridge Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,413 (0%)	3mo	$201,990	$143	96
1735 Bear Grass Ridge Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-4%)	1mo	$231,990	$171	87
1711 Bear Grass Ridge Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-4%)	6mo	$237,990	$175	82
1715 Bear Grass Ridge Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+4%)	5mo	$234,990	$160	79
2906 Blue Ridge Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	2mo	$214,990	$137	78
2930 Blue Ridge Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	4mo	$217,990	$139	75
1907 Bear Grass Ridge Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	7mo	$217,990	$139	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-44,788
• Equity at exit: $29,074

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-66,506
• Equity at exit: $16,859

Cash invested: $54,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76504

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,744

Max offer price $174,210

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-76	+0% $-144	+5% $-211	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-205	+0% $-144	+5% $-82	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-94	base $-144	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,748
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2902 Blue Ridge Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1732	$1,945	$1.12	15d	1	0.05mi
2906 Blue Ridge Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,695	$1.08	45d	1	0.05mi
2928 Wildcat Ridge Rd Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,400	$1.19	45d	1	0.08mi
2917 Quail Ridge Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,395	$1.19	15d	1	0.11mi
1907 Bear Grass Ridge Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,700	$1.08	45d	1	0.12mi
2003 Bear Grass Ridge Rd Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,300	$1.11	15d	1	0.13mi
2007 Bear Grass Ridge Rd Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,550	$1.11	15d	1	0.13mi
2011 Bear Grass Ridge Rd Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,395	$1.19	15d	1	0.13mi
2509 Elk Creek St Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,825	$1.05	25d	1	0.76mi
2072 Dade Loop Unit DADE2072 Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,535	$1.22	15d	1	0.93mi
1218 S 26th St Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	25d	1	0.94mi
2152 Meridian Loop Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,700	$1.25	15d	1	0.95mi
1418 Eaton Dr Temple, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1529	$1,675	$1.10	15d	13	1.00mi
1906 East Avenue G Unit G Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1347	$1,600	$1.19	25d	1	1.03mi
1515 Case Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,600	$1.22	25d	1	1.04mi
1115 S #B S Terrace ST Unit Terrace St unit 1115 B Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1355	$1,435	$1.06	45d	1	1.04mi
1114 Zora Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,495	$1.17	45d	1	1.05mi
1909 Euclid Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$1,600	$0.99	25d	1	1.06mi
1110 Zora Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,495	$1.17	45d	1	1.06mi
1551 Case Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,600	$1.22	45d	1	1.07mi
1622 Lummus Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1518	$1,600	$1.05	45d	1	1.07mi
1702 E Heritage Ave Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$1,400	$0.81	45d	1	1.07mi
2404 Alterman Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	45d	1	1.10mi
2408 Alterman Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1351	$1,600	$1.18	45d	1	1.10mi
2408 Alterman Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1351	$1,575	$1.17	45d	1	1.10mi
2412 Alterman Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,299	$0.97	25d	1	1.10mi
1018 Zora Dr Unit b Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,295	$0.99	45d	1	1.10mi
1001 S Terrace St Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,015	$0.93	15d	1	1.11mi
1907 Delano Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,700	$1.34	23d	1	1.11mi
2420 Alterman Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,325	$0.99	25d	1	1.11mi
2306 Duntov Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	23d	1	1.14mi
820 S 24th St Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,435	$1.10	15d	1	1.14mi
708 S 28th St Unit 28th St unit 708 A Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1355	$1,435	$1.06	45d	1	1.14mi
2316 Duntov Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,523	$1.14	45d	1	1.14mi
2320 Duntov Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,350	$1.03	23d	1	1.15mi
805 S 24th St Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,245	$1.01	45d	1	1.15mi
306 Dolphin Dr Unit 306 A Dolphin Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,350	$0.98	15d	1	1.15mi
2306 Duntov Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	15d	1	1.16mi
2307 Duntov Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,350	$1.03	15d	1	1.16mi
2311 Duntov Dr Unit a Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,400	$0.95	45d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 616-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   price $194,990 616-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   price $209,990 616-char remark
4. 2026-04-29
   listed $213,990 Active 616-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,922
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$5,672
• Taxable loss: −$5,110
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,227
• After-tax cash flow: $-497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This modern, single-story home is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. Updates to paint and flooring would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temple ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842330
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,120
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7123
• State rank: #590 of 826 in TX

Livability — Temple

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #3814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temple, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 96,587
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,166
• Household income: $52,803
• Rent vs Own: 68.6% rent · 31.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1489.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 15% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.28%
• Current HPI: 186.1148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $194,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $209,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $213,990 Unlock MLS