57846 150th Ave · Lacona, IA 50139

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1930 $201/sqft · 9% above area Est $287k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 1.5-story home situated on 4 acres with a practical mix of living space, updates, and functional outbuildings. This home features a classic oak kitchen with adjoining dining area, a comfortable living room, a cozy family room with wood stove, and a convenient main-floor laundry. The layout provides practical living with multiple gathering areas. Recent improvements include metal roofs, newer windows, a remodeled bathroom, an updated water heater, and 2 newer metal garage buildings. All appliances are included. The acreage is enhanced by a collection of outbuildings suitable for storage, workshops, or hobbies, including a 16' x 18' shed, 18' x 24' metal building, 24' x 30' metal building with workshop area, 20' x 30' outbuilding, 18' x 30' rustic building with original wood interior, and a 20' x 30' barn. Each structure offers its own utility and character, creating a versatile property with numerous potential uses.

Key facts

• Oak kitchen
• Remodeled bathroom
• Outbuildings

Tags

• OAK KITCHEN
• MAIN-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NEWER WINDOWS
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• UPDATED WATER HEATER
• OUTBUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-525 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (40.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (52.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (52.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#702 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Southeast Warren Community School District (rural): math 65% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #162 of 289 in IA (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southeast Warren Primary (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #224 of 616 statewide, top 42%, 130 students, 30% FRL); Southeast Warren Intermediate (math 62% / reading 72%, grade A-, #140 of 246 statewide, top 60%, 92 students, 37% FRL); Southeast Warren Jr-Sr High School (math 66% / reading 71%, grade B, #181 of 336 statewide, top 54%, 233 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Lucas County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $230k implies a 1050% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,011 (52.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.79%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 17.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,740
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -19.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-27,525
• Equity at exit: $80,320

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-22,144
• Equity at exit: $108,172

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50139

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 17.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,114/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,765

Max offer price $137,130

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-395	-5% $-460	+0% $-525	+5% $-590	+10% $-655
Rent	-10% $-612	-5% $-569	+0% $-525	+5% $-482	+10% $-438
Rate	-1.0pp $-409	-0.5pp $-467	base $-525	+0.5pp $-585	+1.0pp $-645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $229,900 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-04-01
    listed $234,900 Active 963-char remark

    Show marketing remark (963 chars)

    Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 1.5-story home situated on 4 acres with a practical mix of living space, updates, and functional outbuildings. This home features a classic oak kitchen with adjoining dining area, a comfortable living room, a cozy family room with wood stove, and a convenient main-floor laundry. The layout provides practical living with multiple gathering areas. Recent improvements include metal roofs, newer windows, a remodeled bathroom, an updated water heater, and 2 newer metal garage buildings. All appliances are included. The acreage is enhanced by a collection of outbuildings suitable for storage, workshops, or hobbies, including a 16' x 18' shed, 18' x 24' metal building, 24' x 30' metal building with workshop area, 20' x 30' outbuilding, 18' x 30' rustic building with original wood interior, and a 20' x 30' barn. Each structure offers its own utility and character, creating a versatile property with numerous potential uses.

19. 2014-04-08
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,114 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,362 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,248/yr (+$104/mo · 112.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,114
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,056
• − Management: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$10,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,578
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southeast Warren Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1926850
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,443
• Composite: 58.28/100
• National rank: #1018
• State rank: #162 of 289 in IA

Livability — Lacona

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #702
• US rank: #16315

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,058

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,106 people
• By 2030: 7,755 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 7,007 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 6,265 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 4,926 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 3,792 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.1) · D 25.2% · R 73.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.7pp · 2024: -48.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.1 2020: R+43.3 2016: R+38.1 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+6.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Current HPI: 209.3042
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+1074.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $234,900 DMMLS
• 2014-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,114 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.