5432 Fort Ashby Rd · Fort Ashby, WV
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
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- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
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- Est. flood insurance / yr
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Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
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Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
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Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
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- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +24.7/30.0
- DSCR +8.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Appreciation +6.7/10.0
- 1% rule +6.4/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Schools +2.5/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
$100,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
ATTENTION!!! Seller will CONSIDER adding more land at the buyer's expense for a new survey!!!!! Located in Mineral County, West Virginia, on 1 (ONE) acre. I have been contacted by many regarding the confusion about the 821 acres behind the property. 1 acre, along with the farmhouse, has been parcelled off for sale. The seller never occupied the home. It was a rental property. The tenants lived on the right side of the home, which has two bedrooms on the top floor and a full bathroom. The main level has a half bathroom, a dining area, two laundry connections, and a kitchen with only a refrigerator, cabinets, and a kitchen sink with a faucet. The utility area is located in the kitchen. There
Key facts
- 1 acre lot
- Built 1900
- Listed 50 days
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
- Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 61/100 on livability (#206 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D, employment D.
- Mineral County Schools (rural): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #32 of 55 in WV (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Mineral County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $4k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
- Mineral County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.14% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.81%
- Cash-on-cash
- 8.98%
- DSCR
- 1.40
- GRM
- 7.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $275,880
- Comps found
- 1
Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5895 Fort Ashby Rd | 0.34mi | 3/1.0 | 1,484 (-11%) | 6mo | $245,000 | $165 | 58 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
3.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 16.8%
- Equity multiple
- 1.98×
- Total profit
- $27,350
- Equity at exit
- $47,028
- IRR
- 18.1%
- Equity multiple
- 3.73×
- Total profit
- $76,330
- Equity at exit
- $74,124
Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State West Virginia
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 26726
- Home prices YoY
- 1.6%
- Active inventory
- 49
- Price-to-rent
- 7.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,140 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$524
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
- Insurance
- −$42
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$239
- Net cashflow
- $210
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $279 | -5% $244 | +0% $210 | +5% $175 | +10% $140 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $119 | -5% $165 | +0% $210 | +5% $255 | +10% $300 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $260 | -0.5pp $235 | base $210 | +0.5pp $184 | +1.0pp $157 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $25,000
- Closing costs
- $3,000
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 4 events
-
2026-03-23status Pending
-
2026-03-10historical Active Under Contract
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2026-01-20$100,000 Active
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2026-01-18historical $100,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
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Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $13,680
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,602
- − Property taxes
- −$1,500
- − Insurance
- −$500
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,094
- − Management
- −$1,094
- − Depreciation
- −$2,909
- Taxable income
- $981
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$235
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,279/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Mineral County Schools
- NCES district ID
- 5400870
- Math proficiency
- 26% ▼ -12.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 34% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $36,161
- Composite
- 24.85/100
- National rank
- #7590
- State rank
- #32 of 55 in WV
Livability — Fort Ashby
- Score
- 61/100
- State rank
- #206
- US rank
- #18312
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- City population
- 2,020
- Population (ZIP)
- 12,619
Population outlook (Mineral County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 25,357 people
- By 2030
- 24,009 · -5.3%
- By 2040
- 21,321 · -15.9%
- By 2050
- 18,801 · -25.9%
- By 2075
- 13,934 · -45.0%
- By 2100
- 10,141 · -60.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (91%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 0% · Canada
Political lean MEDSL · Mineral
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.2% · R 79.4% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -60.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+60.8 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+33.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 3.36%
- Current HPI
- 212.7657
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- —
- F500 in state
- 0
Price history
+0.0% since first listed4 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-03-10 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-01-20 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-01-18 Coming Soon $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…