18 Birchwood Dr · Franklinville, NJ 08318

$109,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $80k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home that is fully move in ready and designed for comfortable, modern living. The home features high ceilings, abundant natural light, and an open layout that creates a bright and functional living space. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, and a large island that works well for dining, meal prep, or entertaining. Additional features include natural gas forced air heat and laundry hookups for convenience. Located in a quiet community with a monthly lot rent of $786, which includes water, sewer, trash, recycling, and snow removal on main roads. Financing options are available. Schedule your showing today to see this hom

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2025
• Listed 59 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease with monthly fee; Land lease amount $789 per month; 99 years of land lease remaining

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Manufactured / modular property; Construction not completed; Estimated year built
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Manufactured construction materials; Above-grade other structures
• Exterior features: Community pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating; Natural gas heat; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Two or more access exits; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.5% in Franklinville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pittsgrove Township School District (rural): math 18% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #295 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $105,730 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.98%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,388
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 Cedarwood Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	952 (+3%)	9mo	$83,000	$87	78
5 Elmwood Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	924 (0%)	19mo	$125,000	$135	77
3 Cedarwood Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	976 (+6%)	6mo	$83,300	$85	75
59 Hazelwood Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+6%)	6mo	$45,000	$46	70
4 Donald Pl	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	868 (-6%)	6mo	$50,000	$58	65
43 Hazelwood Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	860 (-7%)	11mo	$69,000	$80	64
120 Hazelwood Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	980 (+6%)	23mo	$88,000	$90	61
4 Dianna Pl	0.38mi	3/1.0	980 (+6%)	9mo	$55,000	$56	61
88 Hazelwood Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	800 (-13%)	9mo	$64,000	$80	59
8 Ashwood Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+8%)	21mo	$120,000	$120	59
5 Luann Dr	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	860 (-7%)	23mo	$77,500	$90	40
248 Harding Hwy Unit E-10	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-13%)	24mo	$74,900	$94	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $141
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $23,103
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08318

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,307 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $109,000 Active
18. 2026-04-17
    historical
19. 2026-03-09
    price $109,000
20. 2025-10-17
    listed $114,500 Active
21. 2025-09-26
    historical
22. 2025-09-05
    price $114,500
23. 2025-03-18
    price $119,000
24. 2025-01-27
    status Active
25. 2025-01-26
    historical
26. 2024-11-12
    status Active
27. 2024-11-05
    historical
28. 2024-09-19
    listed $125,000 Active
29. 2024-09-08
    historical
30. 2001-06-25
    historical
31. 2000-10-25
    listed $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $1,718
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$412
• After-tax cash flow: $2,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsgrove Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3413110
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $71,126
• Composite: 30.59/100
• National rank: #6201
• State rank: #295 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Franklinville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,149

Population outlook (Salem County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,905 people
• By 2030: 57,351 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 51,837 · -13.5%
• By 2050: 46,356 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 36,452 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 28,907 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Salem

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 39.6% · R 58.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: 3.9pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+12.8 2016: R+15.4 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.68%
• Current HPI: 284.9025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+990.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $109,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $109,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $114,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $114,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $119,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-27 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-08 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-06-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-10-25 Listed $10,000 BRIGHT MLS